The Wait for New Tests of North Korean Weapons


During the summer and autumn 2020, the author has, on more than one occasion, come across reports by analysts or statements by politicians about the possibility that North Korea could conduct a nuclear weapons test or at least, fire a submarine-launched intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) capable of carrying a nuclear warhead in the run-up to the presidential…

What Stephen Biegun was Doing in Seoul


From July 7-10, Deputy Secretary of State Stephen Biegun, US Special Representative for North Korea, made a visit to Seoul. While the entire makeup of the delegation is not clear, Biegun was accompanied by Alex Wong, deputy special representative for the North. The goal of the visit was to highlight the US commitment to find a diplomatic solution…

A Year after the North Korea–United States Hanoi Summit: Expectations for the Next One


Just over a year has gone by since US President Donald Trump met with Chairman of the DPRK State Affairs Commission Kim Jong-un in Hanoi. It was the second North Korean-American summit to be held, following on from the first 2018 North Korea–United States Singapore Summit. Many were surprised that the meeting ended…

Failed Attempts to Impeach Trump and their Effects on Dialogue between DPRK and US


On 5 February 2020, the US Senate voted to acquit President Donald Trump on two articles of impeachment. After that, Trump’s approval ratings reached a new high of 49% for this last year of his presidency. What effect will this event have on the way talks between Pyongyang and Washington proceed in the future…

US-DPRK Dialog in 2020: for Now, “the Door is Closed, but not Locked”


We have already conducted a preliminary analysis of what the situation on the Korean Peninsula will look like in 2020, and what is happening now goes to show that although the dialog is not being broken off, there is a hardening of attitudes, which we can see is inevitable. Let’s not forget that towards the end…

USA’s Short-Term Goal – Iran, and Long-Term One – China?


This article was written during the brief period between Iran’s attack on American military bases in Iraq and the next step yet to be taken by the United States, which may prove just as tough. But since the author of this text is not an expert on either the United States or the Middle East, his aim is not to predict in detail the path the escalation will follow but instead…

The Closer to the New Year, the Greater the Commotion


As 2019 draws to a close, tensions start to rise on the Korean Peninsula, and it is expected that the period of de-escalation in the region won’t continue into 2020. During the whole month of November, North Korean representatives were urging the United States to change its approach, warning that “the window narrows.” The United States…

Will This Year’s Vigilant Ace Mark the End of US-DPRK Dialogue?


We ended our previous report on the issues plaguing the dialogue between the DPRK and the United States with the statement from 6 November by Kwon Jong Gun, the Roving Ambassador of the Foreign Ministry of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, on the fact that the USA and the ROK will hold joint military drills in December…

De Facto Collapse of Case Against Free Joseon?


After the first suspects in the case involving an attack on the North Korean Embassy in Madrid were identified, the author hoped that this would set the wheels in motion. However, since spring 2019 there have not been any news reports about it, and the ones published have been disappointing. The only person, arrested in connection with the case in…

Outcomes of Meeting between US and DPRK Representatives on 4 – 5 October 2019


On 1 October 2019, Choe Son Hui, First Vice-Minister of Foreign Affairs of the DPRK, released a statement saying that North Korea and the United States had agreed to hold a meeting between their respective working groups on 5 October. Later on, it was reported that the talks would take place in Stockholm. And then the North Korean delegation…

DPRK’s October Missile Launch: End to Dialogue or Beginning of New Cycle?


On 2 October 2019, North Korea carried out yet another (11th since the start of the year) missile launch, which has caused a much bigger uproar than the test firing of short-range missiles or of a “super-large” multiple rocket launcher (MLRS) that we had reported on earlier this summer. First of all, (in the author…

Will John Bolton’s Ousting Affect US Policy Towards DPRK?


On 10 September 2019, U.S. President Donald Trump dismissed National Security Advisor John Bolton. On his Twitter feed the President stated that Bolton’s “services were no longer needed at the White House.” “I disagreed strongly with many of his suggestions, as did others…

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