After its president, Kais Saied, ousted the prime minister, dissolved parliament for a month, and stripped deputies of their immunity, the situation in Tunisia remains a top story in the media landscape of the country and the region.

These decisions were announced against the backdrop of public protests on July 25, as the population at large remains dissatisfied with the socio-economic hardships and the incapability of those at the top in the fight against the Covid pandemic.  Tunisia has one of the highest death rates because of coronavirus in the world.

The head of state’s emergency measures were taken, as he stated, under Article 80 of the constitution.  Some see these steps as “correcting the course of the revolution” (referring to the 2011 Jasmine Revolution), while others qualify them as a “coup” directed “against the revolution and the constitution.” In this vein spoke the speaker of the temporarily frozen Tunisian parliament, the leader of Ennahda Movement, an Islamist Democratic Party, Rachid al-Ghannouchi.

The power crisis was triggered by disagreements and conflicts between the president, parliament, and the government.  The master of Carthage palace (President Kais Saied’s residence) repeatedly criticized MPs for actions that caused conflicts between the various parliamentary blocs and contributed to the chaos.

At the same time, many experts blame the Islamist Ennahda Movement for social dislocation, deteriorating security, amateurish governance, etc. It has been the leading force, in fact, in all of the ten governments that have existed since 2011. In the first multi-party elections to the National Constituent Assembly (NCA), the organization won the most seats, almost 42%. But in subsequent parliamentary elections, it kept losing them: in 2014 to 28%, and in 2019 to 25%. Nevertheless, Ennahda remains the largest party in the current parliament.

The Islamists are in a mosaic society where there remains the significant influence of archaic social relations and lifestyles as well as hallowed conservative traditions.

The current crisis highlights the question of the compatibility of democracy with the values of a Muslim country.  Several commentators point out that attention should be paid to the realities of the society, the solution of urgent problems, moving away from loud statements and pompous rhetoric. People are fed up with politics and ideology and the struggle within the party community over the past ten years, concludes a local analyst. There are 209 registered parties in the country.

Despite being an instrument of activity, democracy in their hands has become a fruitless game. They used it to advance their narrow interests. Ennahda was at the forefront. The product it tried to market to its consumers over the years was an ideology and nothing more.

Today, according to the weekly Realites, many Tunisians were relieved after the president’s measures highlighted the “historical bankruptcy of Ennahda and its leader.”  87% of Tunisians supported the head of state, according to a poll conducted by le Emhrod Consulting at the end of July this year.

The media are now covering the president’s activities, as he is recruiting new personnel at various levels to eliminate “corrupt officials,” combating the high cost of essential consumer goods, and strengthening measures to counteract the coronavirus.

Some notice that new appointments are taken from employees who are at least 60 years old. Most of them had careers under the previous system before 2011. Which begs the question of whether they will be able to readjust quickly in light of the aspirations of the disgruntled masses who are hungry for change.

To get out of the situation, it is recommended that the public and private sectors develop equally. The top rulers after the revolution were betting on the public sector, seeking to pump it full of money so that it would absorb as many of the unemployed as possible. But this bet placed a burden on the budget and increased dependence on foreign injections. Several experts demand a clear roadmap of reforms from the president.

In recent days, there seems to have been hints from Ennahda of a certain softening of its stance on the president’s demarche, as evidenced by the creation of an internal interim committee to deal with the current political crisis.

It is a well-known fact that the Arab Spring began in Tunisia: a wave of demonstrations toppled the former regime there. Tunisia, unlike the rest of the Arab states, managed to get away with few losses.

Commentators note with satisfaction that the president puts “the horse of the economy ahead of the political cart” in the interests of the Tunisians’ right to a decent life and a piece of bread. This university professor, a self-nominee, did not represent any party or organization and was elected two years ago by citizens who had lost faith in the politics of parties and elites. Tunisians’ expectations for improvement in all areas are immeasurably high.

Whether his experience will be successful and whether the country will find its key to solving problems without violence or other overreaches, only time will tell.

Yuri Zinin, a senior researcher at the Center for Middle Eastern Studies, Institute of International Studies of the Moscow State Institute for International Relations, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”.

The recent actions of Tunisian President Kais Saied have grabbed the world’s attention and can only be compared with the Arab Spring, the cradle of which the North African country was ten years ago.

The nonpartisan president Kais Saied, elected in 2019, showed a personal responsibility in the need to curb corruption and the political demagoguery of parliament. He fired top ministers, froze parliament for 30 days, took over executive powers, and oversaw the prosecutor’s office, saying he must save the country, suffering from a new wave of coronavirus and a crumbling economy.

Saied publicly spoke out “against corrupt lawmakers and tycoons” and increased military oversight of pandemic control measures. “The main victim” of his decisions the Islamist Ennahda Party promises to resist. Its supporters are trying to arrange protests, participating in mass clashes with supporters of President Kais Saied. The Tunisian president himself and his aides held a host of meetings with foreign allies, promising that his seizure of power was temporary and that his actions would not exceed the requirements of the country’s constitution.

Let’s recall, in the 2019 presidential election, 63-year-old law professor Kais Saied, supported by more than 72% of voters due to his non-partisanship. He campaigned in social networks, cafes, and public places, advocating decentralizing power and electoral reform. Therefore, it is not surprising that many Tunisians welcomed his latest moves, although some critics tried to call them a coup.

Countries in the region, from Egypt to Saudi Arabia and Europe, are closely watching further developments. European countries, especially nearby Italy, are already worried about a possible increase in the flow of migrants if Tunisia plunges further into chaos.

In late July, a Tunisian judicial official said that investigations had already begun into allegations of political crimes. The spokesman added that the investigation began even before President  Kais Saied decided to dismiss the prime minister and freeze the work of parliament. The investigation concerns three political parties – the country’s two largest, Ennahda, Heart of Tunisia, and the Aish-Tounsi association- over allegations that they received foreign funding during the 2019 elections.

Tunisian President  Kais Saied said on July 30 that he would not allow the Tunisian people to be robbed and the state to be damaged. “All those who have been arrested are the accused,” the Tunisian leader said, commenting on the detentions taking place in recent days. “I did not interfere, but I will never allow them to rob the Tunisian people, damage the state and threaten its institutions,” he added.

According to Saied, “there were thieves in the Assembly of the People’s Representatives (APR, a unicameral parliament) and wrongdoing took place there.”

On August 2, Kais Saied received Marouane El Abassi, governor of the Central Bank, at the presidential palace and declared that the state would overcome its difficulties thanks to the will of the people and the support of brotherly friendly powers alike. recalling that the treasury is now empty, Kais Saied  stressed “This war will be won without bullets or bloodshed, but by a law based on justice and liberty.” According to him, economic and political assistance will allow Tunisia to meet domestic and foreign financial obligations. The national leader assured that the country would not deviate from the principles of law and freedoms because it respects the will of Tunisians, not political unions. “I have decided to be on the side of the people to preserve the unity of the state and protect it from gnawing corruption,” the president summarized.

As local media reported on August 4, President Kais Saied fired Tunisia’s Ambassador to the United States andgovernor of Sfax province. No explanation of these steps is given.

Egyptian Foreign Minister  Sameh Hassan Shoukry said his country “fully supports” Tunisian President Kais Saied and his actions toward security. He said this during a visit to the North African country on August 4. For his part, the Tunisian president stressed the state’s interest in constantly strengthening ties and coordination with Cairo.

In addition to Egypt, Algeria, and Libya, Tunisia’s neighbors and the United Arab Emirates (an essential sponsor of Tunisia), and Syria have already expressed support for the measures taken by the Tunisian president.

Ministry of Foreign Affairs (Russia) stressed: “We assume that the internal contradictions in Tunisia will be resolved solely in the legal field. We expect that Russian-Tunisian friendly relations and multifaceted cooperation will continue to develop steadily to benefit the peoples of our countries.

In an article presented in Il Messaggero, former Italian Prime Minister Romano Prodi wrote that the European Union’s silence on the situation in Tunisia means support for the coup organized by President Kais Saied and his allies, the “autocratic” regimes of Saudi Arabia and Egypt. In addition to Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Bahrain, which have already supported the actions of the Tunisian president, Romano Prodi singled out Turkey and Qatar. They sponsor the Muslim Brotherhood (an organization banned in Russia), with which the Tunisian Islamists are associated, as the primary external players with influence on the processes in Tunisia.

Given the close ties between the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood (a formation banned in the Russian Federation) and the Tunisian Ennahda, it was not easy for Erdogan to come to terms with his second loss after the failure of the Islamists he supported in Egypt. Therefore, official Ankara was not slow to react to the actions of Tunisian President  Kais Saied and considered them “a coup against democracy and the will of the Tunisian people.” However, as the Lebanese  Al Mayadeen notes, the recent events in Tunisia are also a personal defeat for Erdogan. In this connection, it is predicted that the Turkish president will inevitably lose ground in Libya, followed by Syria, after which Erdogan can be deprived of Turkey.

In terms of regional politics, Kais Saied’s actions have strengthened the position of the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Russia, and France, while Qatar and Turkey have lost influence. The events in Tunisia will directly affect the balance of power in Libya. It is no secret that Rachid al-Ghannouchi, the leader of Ennahda in Tunisia and speaker of the Tunisian parliament, now in disgrace, supports Sarraj, who Erdoğan also supports. But Tunisian President Kais Saied has changed Tunisia’s position since he took office, taking a different stance from al-Ghannouchi. We can assume that this position will become more evident in the coming days.

The US reaction to the events in Tunisia so far has boiled down to an hour-long telephone conversation between the United States National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and the Tunisian president on August 1, calling on Kais Saied to restore the democratic regime in the country as soon as possible. According to the White House, Jake Sullivan expressed US President Joe Biden’s strong support for the people of Tunisia and Tunisian democracy based on a commitment to the rule of law. Sullivan stressed that the priority is to “quickly form a new government headed by a functioning prime minister to stabilize the Tunisian economy and counter the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as to ensure that an elected parliament returns to work in a timely manner.”

As for the future of Tunisia, it will be decided next month, when not only the reaction of internal Tunisian forces to the initiatives of the president will become apparent, but the initiatives themselves will develop, acquiring the outlines of a political program.

Vladimir Danilov, political observer, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook“.

Ten years after the outbreak of the Arab Spring in the Middle East, Tunisia, its cradle, has once again plunged into a wave of protest, the cause of which was the same problems unresolved by the “revolutionaries”: primarily in the socio-economic field, the fight against unemployment, mainly affecting young people, the dominance of corruption.

On July 25, their national holiday, Republic Day, thousands of citizens of this North African nation took to the streets of the capital and other major cities to demand the dissolution of Parliament and early elections. The protesters demanded a change in the political regime and those responsible for the worsening of the country’s epidemiological and socio-economic condition be brought to justice.

One of the protesters’ main demands was against the ruling Ennahda Movement (also known as the Renaissance Party) policies, which has been in power since 2011. The action began in the suburbs of the capital, in Le Bardo, where protesters surrounded the building of the Assembly of the Representatives of the People of Tunisia (APR, unicameral Parliament). They tried to break into the parliament building and threw bottles and stones at the law enforcement officers, which led to clashes between the demonstrators and the gendarmerie. In several other cities of Tunisia, in particular, Kairouan, Sousse, Monastir, Sfax, El Kef, the protesters also attacked the headquarters of the Ennahda Movement, whose leader Rachid al-Ghannouchi is the chairman of the Assembly of the Representatives of the People (ARP, unicameral Parliament). In Tozeur province, citizens burned down Ennahda’s headquarters and destroyed all its property.

According to Tunisian radio station Mosaique FM, Tunisians blame the Ennahda Movement for the deteriorating situation in the country. The party was founded on June 6, 1981, as an Islamic movement and operated illegally for several decades. The official authorization for political activity was received on March 3, 2011, after Tunisian President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali resigned and fled to Saudi Arabia due to the Second Jasmine Revolution.

The protests are increasing pressure on the country’s fragile government, which is engaged in a political struggle with President Kais Saied as he tries to avert an impending financial crisis amid a week-long spike in the COVID-19 pandemic and rising death rates.

Recently, the Tunisian health system has been under unprecedented strain because of the coronavirus. According to Health Ministry spokeswoman Nassaf ben Alaya, the health care system has collapsed. Tunisia is being helped by several countries, including Egypt, Kuwait, and Qatar, which have provided humanitarian aid and medical oxygen. On July 8, Libya closed its border with Tunisia as part of the fight against the spread of the coronavirus, and Health Minister Faouzi Mehdi was sacked on July 20.

Under these conditions, Tunisian President Kais Saied dismissed Prime Minister Hisham al-Mashishi, froze the work of Parliament, and stripped all deputies of their immunity amid anti-government protests that swept the country. He also banned Parliament Speaker Rachid al-Ghannouchi and 64 deputies from leaving the country. According to Tunisian media reports, the ban applies primarily to those parliamentarians against whom legal proceedings are pending. In a statement issued, Tunisian President Kais Saied said he was striving to protect the people’s interests and warned his opponents that the army would answer attempts to undermine order. Saied’s supporters greeted the statement with enthusiastic demonstrations.

In response, Rachid al-Ghannouchi, who is also the leader of the Islamist Ennahda Movement, made a video message calling on Tunisians to “defend the gains of the revolution” and organize demonstrations. Parliament Speaker Rachid al-Ghannouchi accused the president of committing a coup d’état against the revolution and the constitution. However, many Tunisians believe that only a strong hand can overcome the political and economic crisis exacerbated by the pandemic.

To avoid chaos and bandit pogroms in the country, the head of the presidential guard, Khaled Yahyaoui, was appointed interim head of the interior ministry. He temporarily took over executive power until a new prime minister of the country is appointed. Khaled Yahyaoui stressed that he would act within the law and respond to the people’s demands. Later, the presidential office specified that the work of the Parliament was frozen for 30 days.

On Sunday night, July 25, the government forces entered the capital of Tunis. Troops took up positions in the center of the city, particularly near the building of the Assembly of the Representatives of the People and the headquarters of the national television company.

Observers report that the protests are only gaining momentum. The public is angered by disagreements between political parties in the legislature and the confrontation between Parliament Speaker Rachid al-Ghannouchi and President Kais Saied. Demonstrators demand a change in the constitution and the introduction of a transition period. Power could pass to the army at this stage, while Saied would retain his position as head of state.

Vladimir Danilov, political observer, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”.

Tunisian President Kais Saied visited Libya on March 17 after the constitutional oath of office of the transitional Government of National Unity, becoming the first foreign politician to meet personally with the new Libyan Prime Minister Abdulhamid Dbeibeh after the vote of confidence in the interim cabinet. The main point of the visit was the talks of Kais Saied with Libyan Prime Minister Dbeibeh, Libyan politicians and business representatives to discuss bilateral cooperation between the states, “giving business impetus” to the relationship between the countries, as well as strengthening their trade relations.

It should be noted that Tunisia previously sought to remain neutral to the Tripolitan Government of National Accord and the House of Representatives (Tobruk), without giving priority to any of the former authorities.

After congratulating the head of the Cabinet on the approval of the interim executive authorities of Libya, the Tunisian president emphasized that the formation of the Government of National Unity had began in Tunisia, where the Libyan Forum of Political Dialogue was held from November 9 to 16, 2020.

Immediately after this Forum of political dialogue, Tunisia actively took up financial deals with Libya, offering the neighboring North African state a renewed partnership for the extraction of natural resources and the strengthening of trade. A bilateral trade agreement concluded in 2006 brought Tunisia a revenue of 400 billion dinars (about $145 billion at today’s exchange rate), with Tripoli buying food, construction materials and basic goods from Tunisia. However, bilateral ties have been frozen because of the mass unrest that led, at the instigation and with active participation of the West, to the overthrow of the then current regime and the assassination of former Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi in 2011.

Under these circumstances, Tunisia began to propose a new agreement with the National Oil Company of Libya, which could have contributed to the resumption of trade and the flow to Tunis of Libyan energy products it needs. Former Tunisian Finance Minister Hakim Ben Hammouda estimates that political stability in Libya could increase the gross national product of the Tunisian Republic by 3.8% and bring Tunisia an income of $9.7 billion from 2021 to 2025. In addition, the stabilization of good neighborly relations and business cooperation will also lead to a decrease in unemployment in Tunisia: by the end of 2025, the number of unemployed citizens may decrease by 6.7%, similar to the past migration processes of Tunisians who were employed in Libya.

As a result of the steps already taken by the parties, a Libyan-Tunisian agreement was recently concluded to coordinate an expanded seminar organized by the National Petroleum Company of Libya (NPC) to identify the real needs of the promising Libyan oil sector, creating projects that will not only increase production rates, but also contribute to the national economy of the two countries. The head of the NPC has already noted that Libya’s crude oil storage and transportation lines have been destroyed in recent years, which is why the country will need Tunisian organizations and workers specializing in construction.

As for the personal initiative of Tunisian President Kais Saied to lead the process of reanimating relations and business cooperation with Libya on March 17, it is worth noting that in doing so he clearly pursued personal interests amid the internal instability that Tunisia has been experiencing lately. According to a World Bank study, Tunisia loses about $800 million annually because of the crisis in Libya. Tunisian citizens are suffering from economically deteriorating conditions and every day they are losing confidence in the current leadership and are holding rallies against the government, who is failing to fulfill its promises and ignores the problems of the population. Meanwhile, members of the Tunisian state apparatus cannot reach a consensus and keep discrediting each other. Prime Minister Hicham Mashishi fires ministers because of their incompetence, and the president calls on the head of the cabinet to resign because of corruption scandals. Parliament is dominated by the Ennahda party, which is affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood (banned in the Russian Federation) and which calls on the population for a mass march against Rashid al-Ghannushi, the head of parliament. In the opposition’s opinion, this party endangers the republic’s national security.

All these circumstances are pushing Tunisian President Kais Saied to change the government system: to gain more power in the country, including over the Cabinet of Ministers and other structures, he wants to change the parliamentary system of government to the presidential one. For this step, however, the country would have to go through a national referendum to grant additional rights to the president. And one of the winning aces for future voters could be the resumption of relations with Libya by Kais Saied and its assistance in resolving the Tunisian crisis.

It is worth noting that following the Tunisian President, Tunisian Prime Minister Hicham Mashishi announced his official visit to Libya on March 21, who also decided to use the “Libyan ace” in his game. Against this background, Tunisian businessmen have also stepped up: the head of the Tunisian Business Council, Anis al-Jaziri, said that soon Tunisian delegations will also arrive in Libya to restore trade and the first deals concluded will allow the start of supplies worth $1.5 billion.

In support of the steps already taken by President Kais Saied to reanimate trade and business cooperation with Libya, the head of the Libyan Presidential Council, Muhammad Yunus al-Manfi, has already announced the mutual desire of Tripoli to expand cooperation and increase trade turnover with Tunisia. He, in particular, stressed the importance of establishing a bilateral strategic partnership in the near future, and praised the efforts of the government of a friendly North African state to build strong relations.

Vladimir Danilov, political observer, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”.

Ten years after the beginning of the “Arab spring” that swept the Greater Middle East, Tunisia – the birthplace of that – yet again led a wave of protests caused by the same problems that remained unresolved by its “revolutionaries”, primarily concerning the socioeconomic sphere and the fight against unemployment, which particularly affects young people.

For more than a week, large cities in Tunisia have been rocked by violent clashes between police and protesters. Riots also engulfed the city of Sidi Bou Said, which kicked off the so-called “Jasmine Revolution” in January 2011 and sparked anti-government protests following information disseminated via social media on the self-immolation of a young vegetable street vendor, Mohammed Bouazizi, as an act of protest against police corruption and brutality.

Just as occurred in 2011, in a similar vein, and once again spread through social media, once again Tunisian youth today have been stirred up by a video posted on social media showing how a police officer insults a shepherd for leading his flock of sheep in front of the municipal building in Siliana, a city located in 130 kilometers southwest of the capital. Participants in the new demonstrations burned tires and attacked police officers, and owing to that the police began to use tear gas against them – and in the first few days about 1,000 demonstrators were arrested, most of whom were under 25 years old. However, taking into consideration the lessons learned in the past, the local authorities almost immediately entered into a dialogue with the public, trade unions for the region’s security services apologized to the shepherd, and the regional authorities promised to help him. But this did not provide salvation from the riots: youth continued to block roads, burned tires, threw stones and Molotov cocktails, shattered shop windows, and in some places robbed shops and banks. Barricades were erected on the streets. The current protests in Tunisia have been dubbed a revolution of the hungry.

According to observers, the country is indeed experiencing a sharp acceleration in destitution among the population, which has intensified significantly in 2020 as a result of the coronavirus lockdown: revenues from tourism, which is one of the main line items in the government’s income, fell by 65% – and about 10% of the companies in Tunisia have permanently shut down because of the crisis sparked by the pandemic. The unemployment rate has reached a nine-year high of 18% (about 36% of the young population). Tunisia’s economy contracted by about 8% in 2020, the largest decline since it gained independence in 1956, according to the rating agency Fitch. The country’s public debt is growing, which, according to the World Bank, is 86.6% of its GDP, well above the benchmark of 70% for developing countries.

Against the backdrop of this economic crisis and massive unemployment, demonstrators are demanding the government’s resignation. In terms of stabilizing the social situation in the country, it did not help either that on January 16 the prime minister replaced 12 ministers all at once: those responsible for justice, internal affairs, government property, municipal affairs, healthcare, industry, energy, agriculture, culture, labor and the social economy, youth and athletics, and the environment. Over the ten years since the revolution, the country has changed out nine governments, with the last one was sworn in just in September 2020.

After the outbreak of unrest in the capital, some of the residents in coastal cities (in particular, the city of Ash Shabbah) began to sail away en masse in boats towards Italy, but they were intercepted by Tunisian coast guard forces. Along with that, it is worth noting that in 2020 almost 13,000 Tunisians have already set new records for African countries in terms of the number of people that have illegally entered Italy via the Mediterranean Sea.

The surge in the protest wave that took place today in Tunisia is hardly surprising, since anti-government protests due to dissatisfaction with the Tunisian authorities’ socioeconomic policies only rose throughout 2020, and – according to the Tunisian Forum for Economic and Social Rights (FTDES), more than 8,000 incidents occurred in different parts of the country. They were provided another impetus by further tightening its lockdown due to the coronavirus, with desperate young people – who cannot see any prospects in life, and have been deprived of the opportunity to study and work – taking to the streets again.

Tunisia’s parliament speaker, Rashid al-Ghannushi, recently addressed the youth, and called for an end to the arson and destruction of property, emphasizing that the country’s salvation does not lie in inciting riots. According to him, “burning institutions, administration buildings, and shops will not give anyone jobs and a decent life. That is achieved through studying and working”. In this regard, Ghannushi, called on those whom he called “good leaders” to close ranks to save the country.

Ghannushi, who is the leader of the moderate Islamist party “Ennahda”, stated that despite the number of significant changes that have occurred Tunisia since the 2011 revolution, and even the ratification of its new constitution 6 years ago, the country continues to face the threat of eruptions of social unrest, and these political gains are in danger due to the how the country’s regions are unevenly developing. Among today’s problems, the parliamentary speaker noted that what particularly worries Tunisians is the unemployment level, the low levels at which education, healthcare, and transportation services stand in many regions of the country, and the disproportion between the relatively prosperous situation for the population in resort regions in contrast to the country’s central regions. According to Ghannushi, “for the success of the democratization process in Tunisia, it is necessary to work out a development model that would guarantee access to a share in the country’s wealth for the most vulnerable social strata among the population”.

On the third day of unrest, Tunisian President Kais Saied took to the streets to call upon the protesters for peace, warning against political parties that try to use youth to inflict vandalism on the country.

Ten years ago, after the start of the “Jasmine Revolution” in Tunisia, there was a wave of protests in Egypt and Yemen, there was a war in Libya and the assassination of Gaddafi, a long-term war in Syria, an uprising in Bahrain, and large-scale protests in Algeria, Iraq, and a dozen other countries throughout Africa and the Middle East. Unfortunately, it must be acknowledged that, just like 10 years ago, proponents of “revolutionary sentiments” remain in the region. And specifically social stratification, corruption, unemployment, and socioeconomic problems. That is why today’s events in Tunisia should be a warning bell for the authorities in many countries about the need to quickly change the situation and root out the problems that have built up. Otherwise, the region may again flare up with unrest and other troubles, which not only will radical Islamists definitely try to take advantage of, but so will also other forces that are hostile to peaceful coexistence.

Vladimir Danilov, political observer, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook“.

Tunisia is popular tourist destination in North Africa, a cultural melting pot, with Roman, Arab, and Western cultural influences and European progressiveness.

However, Tunisia’s attractiveness as a holiday destination has not been the only reason why the country has been in the news over the past decade. Tunisia was where the wave of color revolutions that later swept through almost every other Arab country arose in January 2011, with the Tunisian Revolution and the ousting of former President Ben Ali from power.

Its natural borders are delineated by the Mediterranean Sea and the Sahara Desert, and the neighboring countries Tunisia shares its land borders with — Algeria and Libya — have always had an influence on the situation in Tunisia, and they still do. Although Tunisia is not rich in natural resources like its neighbors, Algeria and Libya, there have always been many countries that could see the advantages of Tunisia’s location on the north coast of the African continent, who have sought to consolidate their presence and influence in the country. The United States has shown great interest in Tunisia’s strategic location, focusing much of its attention on this country in recent years as part of a broader plan to strengthen the US military presence in Africa, and America has sent into Tunisia soldiers from the private military company (PMC) Engility, a PMC with plenty of experience leading secret military operations in a variety of countries: Afghanistan, Kuwait, Bosnia, Georgia, Yemen, the Philippines and Colombia. If the recent American operations in Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan are anything to go by, it cannot be ruled out that these PMCs have also been given orders from Washington to take control of key infrastructure in Tunisia and create special military zones on the country’s territory, which could serve as a springboard for the United States to expand the US influence throughout the region in the future.

In 2015, Barack Obama declared his intention to make Tunisia one of America’s non-NATO allies. In January 2017, Democratic senators Alcee Hastings and David Schweikert submitted a bill to US Congress to provide “assistance to support the military readiness of the Government of Tunisia,” “assistance to support efforts of the Government of Tunisia to combat terrorism,” “assistance to strengthen and reform the security sector of Tunisia,” “economic reforms and assistance,” “assistance to support democracy and civil society in Tunisia” and “assistance to support increased border security for Tunisia”. However, despite Washington’s desire to develop a close partnership with Tunisia, the Tunisian government was not open to US intervention in the country’s domestic policy, by expressing its opposition to having US and NATO military bases established on Tunisian soil, and opposition to Washington’s intervention in the Libyan Civil War under the pretext of the fight against terrorism.

By the turn of the 21st century, Tunisia had one of the best education systems in the region, and the country was focused on rolling out computerization and developing ties with Western Europe. However, none of this helped Tunisia make progress and improve the political, economic and social situation in the country. The many years of rising inflation and chronic economic crisis this North African country has already endured have influenced the domestic political landscape, which has proven itself to be in a weak and dependent position, including being left at the mercy of external factors such as the actions of both Western and regional players.

All of this affects the political climate in the country. The Ennahda Party (“Renaissance Movement Party”) who won the last parliamentary elections in October 2019 may position itself as a moderate Islamist party, yet we must not forget that it is essentially an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood terrorist group (banned in Russia – ed.), from where it draws its inspiration and ideology. The Ennahda Party must have realized that having an Islamist lead the government as the President is not ideal for developing relations with the West, which are very important for Tunisia, so they seem to have found their own kind of compromise behind closed doors, which is to have a secular Prime Minister appointed who can negotiate with the international community.

Moreover, despite the campaign funding Ennahda received from abroad (supposedly from the Gulf states), it began to show that the party has no real experience running the country, and foreign investors do not have enough confidence in them to allow Ennahda to compensate for their incompetent governance with cash injections.

Today, people in Tunisian society itself are well aware that most of the country’s problems stem from poor governance. All of this adds to the pressure on the parliament, the government and all the political parties. However, there is a lot that depends not only on the actions of the Tunisian authorities and the government. Neighboring Libya has a major influence, and a significant percentage of the Tunisian economy has followed Libya, slipping into the informal sector, where no taxes are paid, no auditing is done, and people live outside the laws that regulate the formal economy, the taxpayers that the authorities depend on so greatly.

In June, Tunisian Prime Minister Elyes Fakhfakh warned that officials predict the country’s economy could contract by almost an unprecedented 7% due to the coronavirus pandemic. At the same time, the Prime Minister stressed that state debt has reached “frightening” proportions, totaling $32 billion, which is equal to 84 percent of Tunisia’s domestic national product. Due to negative economic growth, the state budget will have a deficit of more than $ 1.7 billion, which means that most government organizations will face bankruptcy. The Tunisian authorities had already sent the International Monetary Fund (IMF) a Letter of Intent in April, stating Tunisia’s intention to resume negotiations with the IMF in the near future in order to secure a successor Extended Fund Facility (EFF) arrangement. The IMF and a number of other foreign creditors had previously refused to cooperate with Tunisia, as Tunisia was included on the FATF blacklist for illegal money laundering and financing terrorist organizations. However, given the gloomy economic situation in Tunisia due to the coronavirus pandemic, with border closures and expected losses of $ 1.4 billion in the tourism sector, the IMF approved a $745 million emergency assistance loan in April to help the country tackle the coronavirus crisis.

Tunisia’s political crisis and the country’s social unrest have not died down amid all of these economic concerns and high unemployment rates. As a result, due to the major conflict between the Tunisian parliament and government, President Kais Saied made an official request for Prime Minister Elyes Fakhfakh to step down on July 15 at a meeting also attended by the parliamentary speaker Rachid al-Ghannouchi, and Fakhfakh, who had been in office since February this year, complied by handing in his resignation. Relations between Fakhfakh and the Ennahda Party led by parliamentary speaker Rachid al-Ghannouchi soured in July, when the former Prime Minister announced he planned to reshuffle his cabinet, potentially leading to six party ministers from this party losing their posts. As this conflict unfolded, several political alliances in Tunisia’s Assembly of the Representatives of the People (unicameral parliament) decided to invite members of parliament to vote on a motion of no confidence in Fakhfakh’s government.

In his statement of resignation, Fakhfakh accused Ennahda of complicating the work of the government and undermining stability. “These calls are destroying the principle of solidarity in the government, leaving no doubt that Ennahda is moving away from the commitments and promises it has made to coalition partners of its patriotic intent to save the country and its shattered economy,” said Fakhfakh.

In these circumstances, Tunisia’s future remains uncertain. Like the United States, France is also trying to hold onto its influence in Tunisia, where Tunisian President Kais Saied was welcomed on an official visit to Paris in late June, who engaged in an active talks with French President Emmanuel Macron. According to reports, the talks mainly dealt with rather sensitive issues such as the situation in Libya and an ongoing discussion in the Tunisian parliament to have France apologize for crimes permitted against Tunisians in the past during the colonial era and pay reparations. Countering Turkey’s influence in Libya and in North Africa in general is an important foreign policy issue for President Macron, especially following an incident which recently took place off the coast of Libya involving Turkish warships and a French naval vessel. In light of this, there is this notion in Paris that separating Tunisia from Ankara is now of particular importance for France. Following the events of the Arab Spring, Ankara provided substantial financial aid to the new Tunisian authorities in the hope of growing its influence in North Africa, a region which was once part of the Ottoman Empire, including through Islamist parties that share similar ideologies with the Muslim Brotherhood (banned in Russia – ed.), which many countries declare an illegal terrorist organization, with views shared by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. In addition, as the French media has highlighted on numerous occasions, the Tunisian island of Djerba has been used as a military stopover by Turkish intelligence, with regular transit flights from Turkey to Libya landing in Djerba-Zarzis Airport, carrying cargo for various purposes for Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj’s Tripoli-based Government of National Accord (GNA). However, France is considered one of the countries that supports al-Sarraj’s opponent in the Libyan conflict, commander of the Libyan National Army Khalifa Haftar.

Nevertheless, Tunisian President Kais Saied decided it was better to say nothing about Macron’s attempts to win Tunisia over to his side in the Libyan conflict. In a telephone conversation in June, he assured Emmanuel Macron that Tunisia values its sovereignty, and would not be used as a military stopover by anyone.

Yet, this has in effect already happened…

Vladimir Danilov, political observer, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”.

A new Tunisian government had essentially been formed by mid-November 2019, and Tunisians have high hopes for it. In October, former professor of law Kais Saied won the presidential election with a landslide victory. The incumbent President was born in 1958 and served as Secretary-General of the Tunisian Association of Constitutional Law. President Saied also served on the committee as a legal expert for the Arab League to amend its charter, and he is a former legal expert for the Arab Institute for Human Rights.

The Muslim democratic Ennahda Party proactively backed the independent candidate’s election campaign, and it later won 54 seats out of the chamber’s 217 in the parliamentary elections, becoming the largest party in legislature.  As a result of these changes, Ennahda leader Rachid al-Ghannouchi was elected speaker of the Tunisian parliament, and around the same time his party associates announced that they would also be putting forward a candidate for the post of Prime Minister.

The newly elected President Kais, who is believed to be closely aligned with Ennahda, promises to achieve fair decentralized governance, end corruption and accelerate the country’s economic development.

On November 16, the President tasked former junior agriculture minister Habib Jemli with the formation of a new government. Jemli, an independent, is also believed to be a close friend of Ennahda. In the press however, other candidates were tipped to be the next prime minister, especially the current governor of the Central Bank of Tunisia, Marouane El Abassi, along with former Tunisian Minister of Development Fadhel Abdelkefi.

After the Tunisian Revolution brought an end to the Ben Ali regime, Tunisia endured eight hard years. The country had mainly relied on tourism and built more than 500 excellent coastal hotels, but this sector suffered severe setbacks due to terrorist attacks. The violence in neighboring Libya has done immense damage to Tunisia’s tourism industry, and the terrorist attacks in Tunisia have only exacerbated the situation. Against this backdrop, it is no mere coincidence that over 6 thousand Tunisians have travelled to join the illegal terrorist militants in the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (DAESH). These people were qualified, they could not find work in Tunisia, and believed that the fight against the “infidels” in Syria or Iraq was jihad and would bring them happiness (a number of Western political scientists believe that Tunisians were the largest ethnic and national group represented in DAESH).

Since the fall of Ben Ali’s regime, there have been many changes of government and two new presidents elected by universal suffrage; Kais Saied is Tunisia’s third president to be sworn in after the revolution.

There are still many questions that have yet to be answered, but the big one is: will a new president who is closely aligned with the Islamist Ennahda Party be able to lead the Arab world’s most secular society and achieve rapid socio-economic development? The newly formed government cabinet is likely to provide a clear indication of the direction the Republic of Tunisia will be moving in, the first steps the new government takes will be particularly telling, and it will become clear whether Tunisia’s experience, with the democratic coexistence of secular and Islamic forces, is an example which other states in the Muslim world would want to follow

Tunisians have pinned their hopes for improving the economic situation on the Nawara Development Project to develop a large natural gas field located in the South of the Tataouine Governorate (many Star Wars scenes were filmed there). On November 12 this year, the Tunisian Minister of Industry Slim Feriani said that this field would achieve an estimated daily production capacity of 2.7 million cubic meters by early 2020. This will boost Tunisia’s natural gas output by 50% overnight.

However, Béchir Ben Yahmed, editor-in-chief of the popular African magazine “Jeune Afrique” which he co-founded in Tunisia in 1960, believes that electing Rachid al-Ghannouchi speaker of the Tunisian parliament “will set the country back.” Due to the dominance of Ennahda Party, normal development may not be on the cards for Tunisia over the next few years, as the Tunisian Islamists have shown that they are unable to find a candidate among their own ranks who they could put forward to modernize Tunisia (the state’s debt has only doubled over the last 9 years).

Veniamin Popov, Director of the Center for Partnership of Civilizations at MGIMO (Moscow State Institute of International Relations) of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook.”

In the run-up to September 15, when the country will go to the polls, the Tunisian presidential election campaign has been marked by the large number of candidates (26) running for presidency and the intense rivalry between them.

This is the second multi-party presidential election to take place since the collapse of the previous regime during “the Jasmine Revolution” in 2010.

The struggle for the office has brought together the country’s political heavyweights. They include Tunisia’s incumbent Prime Minister, two former prime ministers, the former President, Minister of Defense, former ministers, and the acting speaker of Tunisia’s parliament, etc.

The nominees represent an array of 14 different local parties and coalitions, including a moderate Islamist party — the Ennahdha Party — also known as Renaissance Party, represented by the Party’s Vice-President Abdelfattah Mourou.

Independents and political newcomers have been drawn into the race. Other candidates include the ambitious leader Nabil Karoui of the “Heart of Tunisia Party” — a businessman, powerful media mogul, and charity-owner. His charity organization distributes food to those in need, and provides other forms of social assistance. According to polls, the popularity of this troublemaker, as he has been called by the local media, soared in June, and July this year.

The election race paints a picture which reflects the political mosaic of people who have come into the picture, compelled by the events which have unfolded in the post-revolutionary years. Dozens of new parties and political groups have since appeared in Tunisia. Many of them have adopted similar slogans which reflect democratic values, a vision of progress, etc.

The late President Beji Caid Essebsi, who died in July this year at 92 years of age, succeeded in bringing together many politicians who united in the big tent secularist party “Nidaa Tounes” or “Call of Tunisia”, in order to counter the dominance of the Islamist Ennahda Movement. Party members ranged from liberals, nationalists, leftists, to progressives, etc. In the 2014 elections, “Nidaa Tounes” won more seats then “Ennahda”. The party leader, Beji Caid Essebsi, became the country’s president.

However, for the best part of the last five years, the balance of the political landscape has shifted. Due to the fact that neither of the two rival parties could garner an absolute majority in parliament, there were all kinds of coalition alliances formed and deals made.In the process, the fragile alliance “NidaaTounes” had cobbled together began to crumble. Members left the party, defecting to other factions. The party’s popularity suffered, it was demoted to third place, and now “Ennahda” has the most seats in parliament.

For the first time, the “Ennahda Movement” put forward its own presidential candidate (in the past it had abstained), against the background of discord in the secular camp. Members of the same “Nidaa Tounes” party, the Prime Minister and the Minister of Defense, are competing with each other in the presidential race.

In this atmosphere, there may well be a second round of presidential elections, as was the case the last time round. If this does take place, it seems there will be no avoiding temporary alliances or coalitions between different candidates.

According to Tunisian political analyst N. Al-Salami, the political landscape is complicated and it’s full of surprises. According to his predictions, there are 4 contenders for the office of president: the 43-year-old Tunisian Prime Minister Yousef Shahid, the Defence Minister Abdelkarim Zbidi, former president Moncef Marzouki, and Mourou from “Ennahda”.

Ideological and political motives are not the only factors which may influence the election results, there are also geographical aspects. The majority of the population living in the south of the country vote for “Ennahda”; they live in the less developed, more disadvantaged areas of Tunisia. This was where spontaneous demonstrations of discontent among the urban grassroots led to the eruption of the “Arab Spring”.

Secularists gain more votes from people who mainly inhabit the more prosperous central regions and the North of the country. This is where more people who value secular traditions live which developed back in the middle of the 20th century.

The elections are taking place at a time when Tunisia, with a population of 11 million is facing some serious economic problems. These are issues of unemployment, estimated at 15%; inflation, which reached 6.5% in July this year; and money owed to the IMF, which can only be paid back through austerity.

Another challenge lies in creating an image of Tunisia as a stable and safe country, which is both important to secure an inflow of foreign investment and for a crucial source of the Republic’s revenue – the tourist industry.

Terrorist attacks which were carried out in 2015 set alarm bells ringing for tourists from all around the world, who may have otherwise planned a holiday to Tunisia.In recent years, thanks to measures the authorities have been taking, the influx of holidaymakers is beginning to pick up again. From the beginning of the year to July, Tunisia welcomed 5 million international visitors, and is expected to host a total of around 9 million in 2019, compared to 8 million in the past.

In the run-up to the elections, the Tunisian newspaper Alchourouk has urged candidates of parties who have similar or identical policies and slogans not to follow personal ambitions, but to cooperate and unite by nominating a common representative in order to strengthen the “unity of the democratic family”. Scattering the votes will only divide the electorate and play into the hands of the opposition.

Will this advice be heard?

Yury Zinin, Leading Research Fellow at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO), exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook.”

The so-called Arab Spring, which began with the string of revolutionary events in Tunisia has now officially ended. It ended last month with Tunisia getting swept by a wave of new demonstrations, with thousands of people taking to the streets both in the capital, and other cities of the country.

Local media sources, while covering those events, referred to them as the “stolen revolution”.

Officially, the Tunisian revolution started in January of 2011, when President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, after staying in power for 23 consecutive years was forced to flee the country.

Seven years later and Tunisians are shouting those very same demands that rallied them when the revolution began: “Employment, freedom, dignity.” It’s no accident that employment occupies the principal place in those chants as the economic situation has been deteriorating for 7 years straight, with Tunisia’s national debt increasing from 39.2% GDP in 2010 up to 60.6% in 2016. In that period Tunisian dinar lost 40% of its value against the US dollar.

Unemployment, as before, remains the scourge of the Tunisian economy, with well over 35% of youngsters being unable to find a job, while prices on basic consumer goods keep skyrocketing. Tunisians are getting increasingly frustrated with the fact that can not make their ends meet, no matter how hard they try, which forced protesters to take to the streets after the announcement of a new budget draft that allowed yet another increase in prices.

Those who participated in the rallies opposed “poverty and hunger” and protested against “thieves who stole the country.”

At the head of the people’s movement was a group called “What Are We Waiting For” According to the media reports, a total of 800 people was arrested during the demonstration, with 200 of them being aged between 15 and 25.

Two years ago Tunisia signed an agreement with the International Monetary Fund that allowed it to obtain a loan of 2.8 billion dollars for 4 years, however that the government was supposed to introduce a series of severe economic and social reforms. Demonstrations were the answer to these planned reforms.

It’s no wonder that local authorities were in a rush to turn their back on the austerity regime they were introducing, pledging to allocate more than 70 million dollar to help the poor. According to the statement of the Tunisian Minister of Social Affairs, Mohamed Trabelsi, this measure will assist a total of 250,000 poorest families.

The Financial Times noted in an editorial that although Tunisia is the only Arab country that has maintained democratic achievements after 2011, however, the democratic course of this country is under threat largely due to the fact that all of the nine governments that were formed after the downing of Ben Ali could not satisfy their people with the rate of improvements in the economic situation, but also because “a very unusual mixture of nationalist and Islamist sentiments do not allow the government to choose an optimal path.”

Terrorism has dealt a severe blow to the tourism industry and does not encourage investors to leave their money in Tunisia, while the government, which consists of 44 representatives, can not really be described as effective, since ministers are more concerned about future elections than anything else.

According to the Al-Jazeera, this latest political crisis shows that after the overthrow of Ben Ali local elites are getting increasingly detached from the people, with all of the major political forces being engaged mainly in discussing their relations between themselves and distributing posts in the government.

It is likely that as a result of the recent turbulent events in Tunisia, a new prime minister will be appointed, but essentially nothing will change, as local political parties, according to the media source mentioned above, use the people’s anger in order to gain more influence by making all sorts of empty promises.

It is likely that this could mean an increase in authoritarian tendencies in Tunisian society, because the current period of so-called democratic changes dictated by Western pressure hasn’t just destroyed people’s welfare, but has made the country much more susceptible to internal crises.

Among the population there is a growing sense of nostalgia for centralized government, as the problem of social inequality becomes more acute. Meanwhile, the government fails to bring at least some sense of optimism into the hearts of the people.

Vladimir Mashin, Ph.D. in History and a political commentator, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”.