For three decades Thai-Saudi relations had suffered over a diplomatic row involving stolen Saudi jewelry and the unsolved murders of several Saudi diplomats in Thailand.

 Al Jazeera in its article, “Saudi Arabia restores ties with Thailand after gem theft dispute,” would explain:

In 1989, Thailand-born janitor Kriangkrai Techamong stole $20m worth of precious gems from the home of a Saudi prince, triggering a spate of murders in Bangkok and a feud between the countries dubbed the Blue Diamond Affair. 

The crimes remain unsolved to this day, but Saudi Arabia has nonetheless decided to move forward together with Thailand to repair relations and begin moving forward together in terms of labor, tourism, and trade agreements that will benefit both nations.

In terms of trade, Saudi Arabia accounts for very few Thai exports, and trails behind India, accounting for only about 2% of all imports brought into the Kingdom of Thailand. Compare this with Thailand’s largest trade partners, China, where 12.95% of its exports go and from which 22.81% of its imports come as of 2019. But an improve in relations could potentially help change that, helping further diversify Thai imports and exports and provide Saudi Arabia an opportunity to diversify away from its dependence on the United States and Western Europe.

A Captive Kingdom Finding an Escape 

There had been speculation that Thailand and Saudi Arabia’s collective decision to repair ties indicated Thailand’s desire to balance its growing ties with China with the improvement of ties with a nation perceived as a close ally of the United States. However, it is very likely this indicates precisely the opposite.

Saudi Arabia’s overdependence on the United States geopolitically has cost the kingdom greatly in recent years. The highly destructive war Riyadh is fighting neighboring Yemen, declared the worst humanitarian crisis on Earth by the United Nations, has stretched the Saudi military, undermined Saudi Arabia’s national security, strained relations with its regional allies, and has further heightened tensions with regional adversaries including Iran.

While the war against Yemen is considered by many a “Saudi” endeavor, the Western media itself has explained how the war is all but being fought by the United States itself, through Saudi Arabia, and for primarily US interests, not Saudi Arabia’s.

The New York Times in an article titled, “Arms Sales to Saudis Leave American Fingerprints on Yemen’s Carnage,” would note:

When a Saudi F-15 warplane takes off from King Khalid air base in southern Saudi Arabia for a bombing run over Yemen, it is not just the plane and the bombs that are American.

American mechanics service the jet and carry out repairs on the ground. American technicians upgrade the targeting software and other classified technology, which Saudis are not allowed to touch. The pilot has likely been trained by the United States Air Force. 

And at a flight operations room in the capital, Riyadh, Saudi commanders sit near American military officials who provide intelligence and tactical advice, mainly aimed at stopping the Saudis from killing Yemeni civilians.

While the New York Times attempts to depict US involvement as reluctant aid offered to a valued ally, it is very clear that much of Saudi Arabia’s foreign policy is decided by Washington and for Washington’s best interests – not Riyadh’s.

The same could be said of Saudi Arabia’s involvement in Syria, Iraq, and America’s ongoing tensions with Iran. Saudi foreign policy has left the region destabilized and undoubtedly affecting Saudi economic, social, and political stability in turn.

With the US fading as a global power and its military impotency on display even in nations US troops continue occupying – including Iraq and Syria – Saudi Arabia finds itself engaged in endless conflict, destabilizing the region it is located in, and denying itself opportunities for the sake of its Washington allies who are in no position to protect Saudi Arabia or reward it for its obedience. And as a consequence of this increasingly obvious reality, Saudi Arabia has begun repairing its relations with many nations in the region, including even Iran.

DW in its 2021 article, “Why Saudi-Iran relations are thawing — for now,” would report:

So far this year, regional archrivals Saudi Arabia and Iran have met more times than in the previous five years altogether. 

The four meetings in Baghdad, and one on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York, indicate continuity in the warming of bilateral relations that had been frozen since 2016.

Improved ties between Saudi Arabia and Iran would solve a multitude of problems for both nations and without fear of US reprisals, could together move the entire region toward a period of unprecedented peace and prosperity. Together with a rising China – the region could be transformed from one known around the world as an epicenter of conflict, to a bridge between Asia to the east and Europe and Africa to the west.

A Saudi Arabia repairing ties with Iran in the region, and nations like Thailand in Asia, indicates a nation and even a region thinking ahead of a future without the US imposing itself as a regional and even global hegemon.

There is a certain irony of a United States posing as “leader” of its self-proclaimed “international rules-based order” claiming that it underwrites peace and stability around the globe – but as it fades from this self-appointed role – actual peace and prosperity fills the war-torn vacuum left behind.

It is still too early to tell whether Saudi Arabia’s attempts to diversify away from a US-centric foreign policy toward a more beneficial approach for Saudi Arabia itself is a permanent process that will continue into the future or a process that may be checked by Washington in an attempt to reassert itself over “allies” eager for exits, but it is nonetheless an indicator of how much and how quickly the world is changing as multipolarism emerges and the West’s unipolar grip over the planet loosens.

Brian Berletic is a Bangkok-based geopolitical researcher and writer, especially for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”.

After Israel signed the Abraham Accords in 2020 to normalize relations with the UAE and Bahrain, and then with Morocco, whether Saudi Arabia will be next in line in this process is being actively discussed in the United States, Israel, and the Middle East in general. The intensity of such discussions increased as the Saudi Kingdom began to introduce adjustments to foreign policy, such as stable diplomacy with Iran, making it impossible to interact with Israel, such as the situation with the UAE.

Looking back, Saudi-Israeli relations were mainly due to the close personal relationship between Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Jared Kushner, the son-in-law of the former US President Donald Trump. Kushner frequently bypassed key US State and Department of Defense officials to push bin Salman into a sharp regional power game that the US foreign policy bureaucracy considered reckless but which was favored by Israel. In response, Kushner provided the Saudi Crown Prince with White House support, allowing bin Salman to play power games such as the blockade of Qatar, the kidnapping of the Lebanese Prime Minister and cleansing internal rivals.

It is no secret that the majority of Israelis continue to consider Saudi Arabia the most coveted prize in the process of normalizing the situation around Israel. Opinion polls have highlighted this in the months following the signing of the Abraham Accords. The Mitvim Institute’s Israeli Foreign Policy Index showed that Saudi Arabia is viewed by Israelis as by far the most important Arab country to develop cooperation with. In the Geneva Initiative poll, the Israelis again ranked Saudi Arabia well above other Arab countries on the most valuable target for Israel’s next peace deal list. Reports in November 2020 of a trilateral meeting between former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman and former US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo greatly strengthened hopes in Israel that the desired rapprochement with Riyadh was only a matter of time.

But these hopes never came true. Even worse, this year, such a move by Saudi Arabia has become even more distant. The controversy over Israel among the Saudi royal family has intensified significantly against the backdrop of deteriorating attitudes towards bin Salman from the new White House Administration and its desire to keep the Saudi crown prince at arm’s length over his involvement in the assassination of opposition Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi. In addition, Riyadh has opened channels of dialogue with Iran, reflecting a different approach from Israel’s.

Along with this, Saudi Arabia has made repeated statements linking rapprochement with Israel with progress in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. Riyadh’s commitment to the Palestinian issue is not just words. It is reflected in the peace initiatives promoted by the Saudis over several decades, in the King Fahd of Saudi Arabia plan 40 years ago (1981) and the Arab Peace Initiative almost 20 years ago (2002). However, Riyadh has made some conciliatory gestures towards Israel over the past decade. Including, among other things, coordination with Israel on security issues in Iran, participation of former senior Saudi Arabian officials in strategic dialogues and conferences with Israeli counterparts, unofficial visits of delegations to Jerusalem and the Al-Aqsa Mosque, and confidence-building measures by religious leaders (such as visits to synagogues abroad and Auschwitz, among other things). There was also permission to fly to and from Israel through the airspace of Saudi Arabia, and more recently, the first interstate sports competition in judo at the Olympic Games in Tokyo.

At the same time, Saudi Arabia emphasizes that good relations with Israel will take place only after the return of the Palestinians and Israelis to the negotiating table. This negotiation request was pointed out on October 15 by the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Arab monarchy, Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud. According to him, the peace process between Israelis and Palestinians is a strategic necessity for the region.

The readiness of Saudi Arabia to take a step towards normalization with Israel was confirmed the other day by Abdallah Al-Mouallimi, the Kingdom’s permanent representative to the UN, in an interview with the Arab News newspaper. However, he simultaneously made it clear that this would only happen if Israel began to comply with the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative requirements. He recalled that the Arab Peace Initiative envisages ending the occupation of all Palestinian lands seized by Israel in 1967, creating an independent State of Palestine with its capital in Jerusalem and respect for the Palestinian rights, primarily to return and to self-determination. According to Abdallah Al-Mouallimi’s opinion, if all the conditions of the global Arab community are met, Tel Aviv can count on a bonus, which it could not dream of even in its brightest fantasies: the entire Islamic world, all 57 countries of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation, will follow the example of Saudi Arabia. He emphasized an axiom known to everyone in the world: the key to peace lies in a just solution to the Palestinian issue. “There is no other solution to the conflict, and there cannot be,” concluded Al-Mouallimi.

Despite the apparent benefit for Israel from the settlement of relations with Saudi Arabia, Tel Aviv has not yet made any reciprocal steps, being still psychologically unprepared to agree with the “Arab initiative.” Any concessions from Riyadh are also unlikely to be expected soon, as well as the signing of an agreement on normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia. At least until the current Saudi king, who represents the camp of the old Arab elite, quite conservative towards Israel, is replaced. King Salman wants to remain in the history of the Arab street and the Arab world as a man who did not betray his solidarity with the Palestinian people, as one of the most outstanding leaders of the Arab Ummah.

Valery Kulikov, political expert, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”.

The United States has now increasingly engaged in a disinformation efforts through media under its sway, national intelligence agencies, and numerous other avenues, with the express purpose of bringing Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud into disrepute.

Prince Mohammed’s alleged involvement in the assassination of Jamal Khashoggi, a Saudi dissident, journalist, has already been made public in a US National Intelligence Report. And now he is being reminded of this as part of another scandal fed by the British, apparently, in agreement with Washington, namely the purchase of the British football club Newcastle United, whose new chairman, Yasir Al-Rumayyan is accused of receiving assets seized as part of the fight against corruption. Moreover, the primary beneficiary of this scheme is said to be the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia. He allegedly gave the appropriate orders to the country’s Public Investment Fund (PIF) head, also Yasir Al-Rumayyan.

Britain is claiming that the interest in the Saudi Crown Prince’s schemes was sparked by the purchase of Newcastle United by the Kingdom’s Public Investment Fund and British discontent with the deal, accusing Riyadh of a range of human rights violations. However, a very active role of the USA in spinning this scandal is evidenced by the fact that Areej Al-Sadhan, a resident of San-Franciso, asked the fans of the British football club to keep in mind the principles of Riyadh’s domestic politics in dealing with the sale of the club.

Further impetus to this scandal, again not without the apparent involvement of the United States, was given by a meeting held in the Civil Court of Canada, where internal documents of PIF were declassified, showing that Yasir Al-Rumayyan is only a formal manager, while the actual owner of the organization is allegedly Mohammed bin Salman.

Another scandal promoted by the United States with the main culprit, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, was his accusation of allegedly wanting to kill the former Saudi King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz Al Saud with a poisoned ring from Russia (and the mention of Russia by the initiators of this scandal was planned as the “cherry on top” for strategists from Washington). The details of this information campaign were presented at some point by the American television channel CBS and expounded by The Washington Post, providing accusations by Saad Aljabri, a former senior Saudi intelligence officer. Saad Aljabri has been an adviser to another Saudi Prince, Mohammed bin Nayef, who led the fight against al-Qaeda (a terrorist group banned in Russia) in Saudi Arabia in the early 2000s and who is Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s main rival to the Saudi throne. Saad Aljabri was the main link in contacts between Saudi Arabia’s intelligence agency and the United States, Canada, Great Britain, Australia, and New Zealand. So it comes as no surprise that US intelligence agencies are using him to spin this latest scandal involving Mohammed bin Salman.

Saad Aljabri’s attempt to hit the Crown Prince’s reputation has already been responded to by the Saudi Embassy in the US, stating that the former assistant Interior Minister is unclean, making his remarks unlikely to enjoy public trust. “Saad Aljabri is a discredited former government official with a long history of fabricating and creating distractions to hide the financial crimes he committed, which amount to billions of dollars,” the Kingdom’s Embassy in Washington stated.

The question naturally arises: why has the Biden Administration pounced so vehemently on the Crown Prince lately?

The 46th US President Joe Biden began his strategy to rein in recalcitrant states by taming one of the youngest and most uncooperative Arab representatives – Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who is actually trying to conduct an independent policy of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, including the United States. In recent years, he began to show irrepressible agility in radically changing the archaic and corrupt way of life of Saudi society that had developed over decades, which suited the United States very well. Having initiated the “Saudi transformation,” Mohammed bin Salman has developed a flurry of activity inside and outside the Kingdom, beginning to introduce various reforms that have become part of the “shock therapy” whose meaning he described in his interview with The Washington Post in February 2018. Outside Saudi Arabia, the young heir to the Saudi throne has already gained considerable prestige, including at the highest political levels in Russia and China, which the Biden Administration has been very jealous of.

Realizing what a threat to the well-being of the current US Administration Mohammed bin Salman could pose, Joe Biden decided to “break the map.” From his first days as US President, he demonstrated his intention to remove Crown Prince Mohammed from active contact with the White House.  Besides, the scenario where the Saudis start buying weapons from Russia and China and making friends with Hezbollah and Iran hardly appeals to anyone in Washington and Tel Aviv.

And in this regard, given the challenging situation in the top Saudi circles in the struggle for the throne, Washington hopes to use this factor in curbing Mohammed bin Salman.  Many members of the ruling dynasty in Saudi Arabia, including about 25,000 people (about two hundred of them are princes), have a negative attitude towards Mohammed bin Salman. The relationship has escalated since the 35-year-old prince announced his claim to power in 2017. The fact is that Crown Prince Mohammad ibn Salman, although considered a “grey cardinal” and the real ruler of Saudi Arabia, is publicly heavily dependent on his father. Once King Salman is removed, Muhammad will be pounced upon by all his resentful relatives, eager to promote their clan as high as possible.

One should also not forget that back in 2018, several members of the Saudi royal family opposed Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud becoming heir to the throne and attempted to remove the Prince from the throne with US involvement. The alleged reason was, very pleasantly to Washington, the Prince showing an apparent interest in purchasing Russian weapons, including S-400. If Reuters and other US media sources are to be believed, “dozens of princes and cousins” were then planning to confront the prince. Some analysts, including the Central Intelligence Agency, believe that one of the Saudi princes Mohammed bin Salman should be particularly wary of,  is Prince Mohammed bin Nayef, who has been a favorite of the CIA for years. In 2017, Mohammed bin Salman arrested Nayef and forced him to hand over the title of Crown Prince.  As for Washington, already in 2018, it was seriously considering another candidate for the Saudi throne in opposition to the Crown Prince: King Salman’s only brother, Prince Ahmed, to whom the royal family members who are willing to be in opposition are also loyal.

Back in January of this year, security and military analyst, Jonathan Broder revealed in an article for SpyTalk his survey of former CIA experts who have worked in West Asia for decades, on whether the Biden government would support a possible plot against Mohammed bin Salman. CIA agent Douglas London, whose activities for 34 years have been associated with the region, admits the likelihood of a “hard” scenario for the US to change the government in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

Former CIA analyst Bruce Riedel, a senior fellow, and director of the Brookings Intelligence Project, who serves as a senior fellow in the Center for the Middle East Policy, argued in early 2021 that the Mohammed bin Salman “elimination” situation could unfold under two scenarios. According to the first, Biden may try to find a way to convince King Salman that the Prince’s behavior has undermined the royal family’s reputation to the point that Saudi Arabia’s position in foreign policy has been seriously damaged. Riedel called assassination the second option, specifying that Saudi dissidents may want to assassinate Mohammed bin Salman with US support.

However, if the coup is destined to happen, its arrangement will prove to be quite tricky, both for the Saudis and US intelligence agencies. James Clapper, the former Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency who also served as Director of National Intelligence under the Obama Administration, believes it will depend on several factors, such as which princes will participate in the plot. Some are more influential than others, so if the CIA decides to help in a coup, it is vital to choose someone who will be the “best US envoy.”

But Gregory Gause, Head of the International Affairs Department at the Bush School of Government and Public Service, Texas A&M University, thinks a much more rational solution for the Biden Administration would be to reach an agreement with the Crown Prince rather than eliminate him.

Vladimir Danilov, political observer, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”.

In recent years, Saudi Arabia and Iran have intensified bilateral talks to resolve existing differences to stabilize the regional situation. According to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Islamic Republic of Iran, the two country’s foreign ministries discuss some serious issues, not least of which is the situation in Yemen, where the countries support different sides in the conflict. Meanwhile, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian described positively the ongoing direct bilateral talks, noting that the countries are now “on the right track.”

As for the Saudi side’s assessment of the talks, the Kingdom stresses that contacts with Iran are now “experimental” for them – Riyadh is probing the ground and exploring opportunities to improve relations. However, since the American presence and influence in the Middle East is clearly diminishing, Riyadh clearly understands that the balance of power in the region has been shifting lately. Under these circumstances, the Arab states of the Persian Gulf cannot ignore the interests of a major power such as Iran. Riyadh and its neighbors in the Persian Gulf have realized that regional rivalry in the current circumstances hinders the development of the Middle Eastern states. At the same time, stable relations and business contacts, in turn, are a better alternative – they can become the guarantee of security and joint development. In this regard, the launched direct talks between the Iranians and the Saudis may positively stabilize the regional situation.

Against this background of Saudi Arabia’s active rapprochement with Iran, a publicly critical statement of the Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman on September 20 at the annual general conference of the International Atomic Energy Agency in Vienna drew attention, as he condemned Iran’s desire to acquire a nuclear bomb. “The Kingdom insists on the importance of keeping the Middle East free of weapons of mass destruction. On this basis, we support international efforts aiming at preventing Iran from having nuclear weapons,” he added. However, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman also voiced calls to eliminate the Israeli nuclear threat and free the Middle East of nuclear weapons.

On October 12, Arab News reported that Saudi Arabia’s cabinet reiterated its call to rid the Middle East of nuclear weapons and reaffirmed its importance in implementing the chemical weapons ban convention. The statements were made by Acting Minister of Media Dr. Essam bin Saad bin Saeed after the weekly cabinet meeting chaired by King Salman of Saudi Arabia.

It is worth noting that just a couple of years ago, Riyadh gave reasonable grounds for the international public to have real concerns that Saudi Arabia itself might turn into a state that would build a nuclear bomb if it wanted to, against the opposition of the world community. And even the Israeli media suggested that the Trump Administration was making efforts to accelerate the transfer of critical nuclear technology to Saudi Arabia.

Recall that Saudi Arabia is a signatory to the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) but has made it clear publicly several times that it reserves the right to enrich uranium on its territory. Riyadh has also insisted on this right amid developments in Iran’s nuclear program, thus showing that Saudi Arabia is interested in building infrastructure to enrich uranium on its territory and will not settle for a peaceful nuclear reactor.

A definite indication of past US involvement was a congressional report released in February 2019. The document was based on testimony from several individuals who pointed to efforts by the Trump Administration to accelerate the transfer of critical nuclear technology to Saudi Arabia. According to the same evidence, officials in the administration approved the transfer of technology from American companies to Riyadh to build nuclear reactors in the country, ignoring the Atomic Energy Act of 1954. At the same time, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif sharply condemned the “hypocrisy” of the US over the planned sale of nuclear technology to the Saudi regime.

However, despite opposition in Congress from opponents of Washington’s continued close nuclear ties with Riyadh, in March 2019, former US Energy Secretary Rick Perry approved six secret approvals for US companies to provide nuclear energy technology and other assistance in this area to Saudi Arabia. Reuters learned about it after reading a copy of the document of the US Department of Energy. This same information was also confirmed in late March 2019 by the US publication The Daily Beast, which reported that the US Department of Energy had secretly permitted six US companies to enter into an initial deal with Saudi Arabia to build a nuclear reactor. But while the administration acknowledged this, it declined to disclose which companies were granted permission as part of the agreement.

Meanwhile, many US lawmakers remain concerned that sharing nuclear technology with Saudi Arabia could eventually lead to a nuclear arms race in the Middle East. These sentiments are reinforced by the fact that back in 2018, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman indicated in an interview with CBS America that the Kingdom would develop nuclear weapons if Iran did so.

As Israeli experts have stated in the media, Saudi Arabia, while remaining a conservative Arab country responsible for the spread of radical Islam, can use its reputation as the head of the anti-Iranian bloc to demand uranium enrichment on its territory in a dialogue with the US administration. Moreover, the American president may agree to it without congressional oversight and consultation with the appropriate experts.

In this regard, one senses that under the influence of the changing international conjuncture, and wishing to please the current US authorities, including in preventing further accusations of Washington’s transfer of nuclear technology to Riyadh, the Saudi authorities have adjusted their public statements regarding the nuclear program, calling for ridding the Middle East of nuclear weapons.

However, the sincerity of Riyadh’s statements and its rejection of a military nuclear program, and whether this position is merely an “experimental” one for testing the international ground, just like in the negotiations with Iran, remains to be seen.

Vladimir Danilov, political observer, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”.

The situation of women in the Arab world may seem very difficult to many people and is almost the same throughout the region. But in fact, Arab countries are distinctly different, and many of them have changed significantly in recent times, including women’s status.

There are Arab countries where the situation of women was very vulnerable throughout the 20th century, such as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Jordan, Northern Yemen, and Sudan. In Saudi Arabia, for example, women could not vote, drive a car, appear in public unaccompanied, or dispose of their property independently. But in recent years, realities in this country have begun to shift values toward more freedom for women. Much of this is also due to generational change: young people have the opportunity to get a good education – including overseas, travel, and broaden their understanding of what is acceptable and normal. The changes in women’s rights and status are also due to pressure and demands from the Saudi population and the international community, resulting, for example, in women in the Kingdom gaining the right to drive cars as of October 2019 after a long campaign starting in early 1990s in support of this right.

The role of Saudi women in society has been changing rapidly since King’s son Mohammed bin Salman al Saud became the Crown Prince, allowing women to drive cars, attend sports matches, and serve in the army and police force.

The most recent developments regarding women’s integration into Saudi society came with the Kingdom’s official Vision 2030 programme, which, among other things, envisioned an increase in women’s labor force participation in Saudi Arabia from an average of less than 20% to more than 40%. As a result, for example, women have been allowed to pursue a career in the military.

At first glance, the Saudi Armed Forces look not bad at all. According to Global Firepower, a portal that analyzes the military power of individual countries, Saudi Arabia’s army has just over half a million troops, ranking 17th out of 139 countries surveyed. The Saudi army is considered one of the strongest in the Arab world, being the world’s largest arms importer, despite the arms embargo declared by many nations on the Saudis, who have been under constant criticism for years due to the many civilian casualties of bombing Yemen.

The official recruitment of women into the Kingdom’s armed forces was launched as part of Vision 2030. The Saudi Ministry of Defence has opened the door for women who wish to apply for military service, by allowing them to serve at various levels at the ranks of First Soldier, Corporal, Sergeant, and Staff Sergeant in the Army, Air Force, Navy, Air Defence, Strategic Missile Forces, and Medical Services of Armed Forces.

To join the army, one must pass an examination, undergo a medical check, and present documents without a criminal record. Women between the ages of 21 and 40, at least 155 centimeters tall, who have graduated from college can sign up for selection. Civil servants and female citizens married to foreigners will not be taken into the army.

The Saudi Arabian newspaper Arab News reported on the appearance of the first all-female military unit in the Saudi armed forces earlier this year.

And now, the Saudi Press Agency Al Arabia reported on September 2, citing the Saudi Press Agency, the first group of female Saudi servicemen have already completed their combat training. They were trained at the Armed Forces Women’s Training Center from May 30 to September 1.

As a result, pictures of Saudi female soldiers clutching modern replicas of the famous Arabian shamshir sabers, traditionally ornate with gold, have often appeared in the Saudi media recently. Although similar “saber props” of non-commissioned officers are common in the British, American, and other armies, it is clear to all that they are not designed for modern combat. But it looks beautiful and moderately archaic, especially in the hands of Saudi female military personnel, which is probably what it was designed to do.

In September, female soldiers of various ranks have already participated in a military parade formation in the capital of the country, Riyadh, and the city of Jeddah to mark the 91st anniversary of Saudi National Day, as reported by Dhaka Tribune.

The service of women in the armed forces, which is considered an inherently male institution and “the last fortress of men,” remains a subject of debate and controversy around the world, including in Saudi Arabia. While some argue that women’s military service should be conditioned on their right to work on an equal basis with men even in the military sphere, opponents say that the mere presence of women in the army undermines its inherent team spirit and combat effectiveness. Women cannot bear the physical and psychological suffering they may be subjected to if they fight in the front lines or being captured.

Some countries have long embraced the idea of women in the military. A number have gone even further by allowing women to participate in combat missions equal to men. These are countries such as the United States, Canada, Norway, Sweden, Israel.

In some Arab countries, such as Egypt, Kuwait, and Tunisia, the issue of women’s conscription is still a matter of debate. However, Arab women began serving in the army as early as the 1960s and played an essential role in the national liberation of their countries from colonialism and external oppression. It is especially true for women in Algeria and Palestine. The same applies to Kurdish, Iraqi, and Syrian women who have been actively fighting the radical terrorist groups Al-Qaeda and DAESH (both banned in the Russian Federation) in recent years, defending their countries and beliefs with weapons in their hands.

Vladimir Platov, expert on the Middle East, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”.

One of the least noted political movements of recent times has been the gradual reconciliation between Saudi Arabia and Iran. They recently held their fourth meeting this year in Baghdad, to almost no mention in the western media.

It is only one of several movements by Saudi Arabia to gradually moving away from the United States’ orbit. The United States still wields considerable influence in Saudi Arabia, with an estimated 17,000 US troops which remain in the country. It is one of the largest contingent of US troops anywhere in the Middle East, matched only by an estimated 13,000 each in Qatar and Kuwait.

The United States involvement in Saudi Arabia is undoubtedly related to that country’s prominent production of oil. If for example, Saudi Arabia was known for its production of peanuts it is highly unlikely that United States would have shown a remotely comparable interest. Notwithstanding the strong United States presence in the country, relations between the Saudi strong man Mohammad bin Salman and the Americans have not been good. Bin Salman recently (in 2020) visited the United States, the first such visit for a number of years.

Saudi Arabia has in recent years been steadily moving its oil interests away from United States, and that movement has been toward China. It is undoubtably China’s growing influence in Saudi Arabia that has led to bin Salman being invited to the White House. China is now Saudi Arabia’s largest customer for its oil.

There have been other indicators of Saudi Arabia’s closer links to China. For example, in July 2019 Saudi Arabia was one of 37 countries that signed a joint statement to the United Nations Human Rights Council defending China’s treatment of its Uighur population. The alleged ill-treatment of the Uighurs by China has been a favourite topic of the United States led alliance of western nations in the past year or so. This is despite the lack of any actual evidence of ill-treatment of the Uighur population by China. The allegations reached absurd proportions, claiming for example, the genocide of the Uighur population. In fact, the Uighurs population has been growing in size for several years, not least in recent years. When the rest of China was subject to the one child policy, the Uighurs were exempt from those restrictions.

A further indication of China’s ever-growing closer ties with Saudi Arabia is that the country recently assumed the status of a dialogue partner in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (together with Egypt and Qatar). Together with the now nine permanent members of the SCO (and two associate members Sri Lanka and Turkey) the SCO is now by far the world’s largest trading block, accounting for more than 40% of the world’s population.

That Saudi Arabia should achieve such a status with the SCO is a hugely significant step. It marks the continuing move of the country away from United States influence. It has not stopped the United States media from continuing to foster the alleged threat Saudi Arabia faces from Iran. These allegations of any Iranians threat completely ignore the fact that Iran has never attacked Saudi Arabia, and neither is it ever likely to do so.

Saudi Arabia also upgraded its status in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation in the full knowledge of Iran’s increased status within the organisation. It did not deter them from doing so. China is now Saudi Arabia’s largest trading partner, having assumed that status some years ago, replacing the United States in that role.

The significance of those trends should not be underestimated. Saudi Arabia has had a long relationship with the United States and while the relationship has not always been an easy one the significance of United States relationship could never be underestimated. That relationship has lasted more than three quarters of a century. From the United States point of view the attraction of Saudi Arabia has always been its immense oil wealth and willingness to use the income derived from that source on the purchase of American weaponry.

As recently as 2017 the Saudis signed a deal with the United States for an immediate purchase a $110 billions of armaments and a commitment to buy $350 billion over the following 10 years. This made Saudi Arabia the world’s largest arms importer. Between 2015 and 2019, the first five years of the Yemen war, Saudi Arabia was the world’s largest importer of US weapons. It was an astonishing level of purchases for a relatively small country (35,000,000).

Enthusiastic support for the Yemen war was provided by the Trump administration, who saw it as a means of embarrassing the Iranians who had been one of Yemen’s staunchest supporters. It has not worked out that way. The Yemenis have proved to be remarkably resilient to Saudi attacks. There has been growing opposition to the war from other major European countries such as Italy which was Saudi Arabia’s 10th largest source of arms. They have now been suspended.

In February of this year United States president Joe Biden announced the end of US support for the Saudi war against Yemen. It was a significant step and one that is likely to lead to an end to the war. Such as a result would be a major victory for Iran that has consistently been a major supporter of Yemen.

Yemen’s recent ability to hit Saudi Arabia with drones has also marked a major upgrade in their war. In my view these following developments are linked. The withdrawal of United States military support, the increased counter-attacking capability of the Yemeni forces, and the willingness of the Saudis to conduct face-to-face negotiations with the Iranians, all reflect the growing power of Iran in the region.

An end to the Yemen war, apart from also bringing an end to the awful carnage of Yemeni children, one of whom under the age of five dies every 10 minutes the war continues, is wholly to be welcomed. The Saudis never had a good reason to wage war on Yemen and a cessation of their hostilities on that country will enhance their relationship with China.

The Chinese, although careful never to directly comment on the politics of other countries other than in response to comments made on China, also welcome the end of the Yemen war. Its ending will enhance relationships with China and speed the day when Saudi Arabia qualifies for full membership of the SCO.

The Saudis are unlikely to ever win plaudits for moves toward a more democratic system of government, but one has to take what small moves they make in putting its house in order. The cessation of its war against Yemen will be seen as a major step and undoubtedly do much to improve relations with other members of the SCO.

Although the influence of the United States will continue to wane, one must also give appropriate credit to President Biden for making the United States position that the Yemeni war had to end. For a country so addicted to promoting war, and his predecessors Donald Trump and Barak Obama doing so much to promote the Yemen war, such a move by Biden is to be welcomed.

One must hope that the BRI opens up better opportunities for Saudi Arabia and that it becomes a more responsible economic and political partner.

James O’Neill, an Australian-based former Barrister at Law, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”.

With Joe Biden’s arrival in the White House, several irritants have once again come to the forefront in US-Saudi Arabia relations. The Saudis are unhappy with President Biden’s intention to return to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action in relations with Iran, as well as the US refusal to see the Houthi movement in Yemen as a “terrorist organization”. The Biden administration’s repeatedly expressed desire to bring the issue of human rights abuses, which was not raised under Donald Trump, back into the realm of bilateral relations, was also of particular concern. Riyadh’s global criticism of Washington’s sale of weapons to Saudi Arabia by Western powers to continue the war in Yemen did not go unnoticed, as did the US authorities’ intention to review their arms deals with the Arab monarchy.

Besides, this spring, Washington announced the start of the withdrawal of Patriot and THAAD air defense/anti-missile defense systems from the Middle East, including the territory of Saudi Arabia, which is the US ally in confronting Iran. The move was very painfully received in Riyadh as it significantly undermines the Saudi kingdom’s security in the face of continuous missile attacks from the Houthis and Iran. The Pentagon attributed this withdrawal of US anti-aircraft systems to their alleged “limited numbers” and the need to use them in other regions, particularly against China and North Korea. However, Saudi experts do not exclude the possibility that one of the excellent reasons for such a step by Washington was the apparent inability of Patriot systems to combat drones. In these circumstances, the US is simply afraid of losing international credibility due to the evidence of the inability of their air defense system to protect from missiles and drones that fire on Saudi infrastructure. So the other day, Saudi Prince Turki Al Faisal explicitly pointed out to the United States that Washington simply needs to stop withdrawing Patriot air defense systems from the kingdom to prove its previous friendship with Saudi Arabia.

It cannot be ruled out that, amid the compromise of the Americans in Afghanistan, the volume of arms purchases from the US will decrease. This could be one of the symptoms of the disintegration of the former Pax Americana, writes the Polish publication Defence 24.

These circumstances, as well as several other difficulties in relations with Washington in the recent period, have prompted the Middle Eastern Kingdom to think about diversifying military cooperation and its military procurement. Therefore, it is not surprising that Saudi Arabia has turned its gaze to Russia, with its superior weaponry well known worldwide, which has already proven its worth in the fighting in Syria.

Wanting to overcome its complete dependence on American weapons systems, as early as 2020, Riyadh began to negotiate with Moscow over the possible supply of S-400 air defense systems. After the attacks on Saudi targets, it became apparent in the Middle Eastern kingdom that American systems are flawed, and Americans are not prepared to defend their allies. Saudi Arabia has therefore taken a closer look at Russia’s defensive and strike systems: the S-400 surface-to-air missile system, TOS-1A Solntsepyok heavy flamethrower system, the SU-35 multipurpose fighter jet and the Iskander-E tactical missile system.

Relations between Russia and Saudi Arabia have not previously been known for their warmth and mutual trust. Recently, however, the parties have managed to take a step towards each other and reassess mutual interests. Despite Saudis’ discontent with the developing cooperation between Moscow and Tehran, which the kingdom sees as the primary source of threat. However, deep regional problems with its neighbors, including Iran and Qatar, as well as growing criticism of actions against Saudi Arabia by traditional Western allies, have prompted the Middle Eastern Kingdom to cooperate with Russia. The rapprochement between Russia and Saudi Arabia was officially explained by Awwad Bin Saleh Al-Awwad, Minister of Culture and Information of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. He stated that Riyadh seeks “to diversify its foreign policy and foreign economic relations, as necessary for the implementation of the strategic development program Kingdom of Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 2030.” Indeed, due to the recent visits of Russian President Vladimir Putin to Riyadh and the Saudi Princes and King of Saudi Arabia to Moscow, the participation of an impressive Saudi delegation at the Military-Technical Forum “Army-2021” in Kubinka near Moscow on August 23 have boosted business contacts and military cooperation between the two countries. Russia is also important for the kingdom to develop nuclear energy. The Saudi authorities have previously announced plans to build dozens of nuclear power plants in the country, and Moscow would also like to be involved in these projects.

The views of the two countries coincide on many issues. For example, Russia and Saudi Arabia believe that the State of Palestine should be established within the 1967 borders as a result of Palestinian-Israeli negotiations with the participation of international mediators. In addition, Saudi Arabia and Russia share the same views on what is happening in Egypt: both sides support President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi, viewing the Islamist organization, the Muslim Brotherhood, as terrorists. Another reason for such a rapid rapprochement between the two countries is the sharp fall in oil prices in late 2014 and early 2015. Moscow and Riyadh face similar economic challenges: budget deficits, economic diversification, and reduced dependence on oil exports. However, Russia and Saudi Arabia are interested in maintaining high energy prices, given that they jointly provide 25% of global oil production. In 2016, countries reached agreements to reduce black gold production between OPEC and independent producing countries.

American journalists were jealous of the fact that the Saudi authorities went into direct contact with Russia on military cooperation. Thus, reflecting the opinion of the current US authorities, Breaking Defense writes that the agreement between Russia and the Saudi monarchy clearly demonstrates the willingness of the latter to go beyond the established framework of military partnership with the United States and a long-standing focus on Washington.

In these circumstances, and fearing such a Russian-Saudi rapprochement, the US has called on Riyadh and its other allies to avoid significant defense deals with Russia, commenting on the signing of a military cooperation agreement between Russia and Saudi Arabia. In addition, in a clear demonstration of Riyadh’s aversion to the kingdom’s show of rapprochement with Russia, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin postponed a planned August visit to Saudi Arabia under the blatantly contrived pretext of allegedly “having problems with its schedule.”

On the whole, when Biden came to power, the main objectives of the United States in the Saudi track of Middle Eastern policy were outlined as follows: minimize direct involvement in the affairs of the region, preserving maximum influence, reduce dependence on Riyadh, keeping the kingdom in its orbit and not allowing it to get closer to Russia and China. Biden is strictly following his campaign promise to treat the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia like a “pariah.” The Democratic administration has downgraded contacts with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and also imposed sanctions on people and organizations in his inner circle. Meanwhile, Washington believes that such a policy, among other things, could strengthen opposition to Mohammed bin Salman.

However, these moves by Washington are only further pushing Saudi Arabia to strengthen and expand ties with Russia. As for Biden’s promise to “turn Saudi Arabia into a pariah,” even the British publication The Economist questions this implementation by the American president, as the US remains dependent on Riyadh both on oil issues and in terms of its strategic interests in the region. Therefore, the White House will have to pursue a policy that prevents Washington’s unpleasant “impulses” by Saudi Arabia while allaying “its worst fears.”

Vladimir Danilov, political observer, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”.

While the twentieth anniversary of the 9/11 attacks has been marked by the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, the end of the US’ longest ever war is also seeing some significant changes in the US geo-politics. Specifically, the arrival of Joe Biden in the White House has set in motion forces that could dramatically redefine the nature of US ties with one of its closest allies in the ‘war on terror’ i.e., the Saudis. The state of US-Saudia ties today is a complete contrast to the warm reception that the Saudis extended to Donald Trump nearly five years ago. It was perhaps a Saudi way of honouring the newly elected president, reciprocating his decision to choose Saudi Arabia as the first county to visit as the US president. That enthusiasm has already faded. Reasons for this dramatic downslide include not only the US’ changing regional priorities and withdrawal from the Middle East/West Asia, but also a growing general realisation both in the US and the world that America is no longer capable of, or interested in, playing the global policeman.

A major manifestation of the changing US priorities and a shift away from the Saudis came recently when the US recently withdrawn a set of advance US missile defense systems from Prince Sultan air base, 70 miles south-east of Riyadh. These systems were sent and installed by the Trump administration in 2019 after Saudi Arabia was hit by missiles that flew from Yemen and targeted Saudi oil facilities. For the Saudis, the US withdrawal specifically means that Washington is backing out of its commitments with Riyadh to protect Saudi Arabia.

Pulling Patriot missiles from the kingdom is “not indicative of America’s declared intention to help Saudi Arabia defend itself against outside enemies,” said Prince Al-Faisal, Saudia’s former head of intelligence, in a recent interview with American media, adding that he hopes the US will give assurances of its commitment to deploy “whatever is needed” to help.

This withdrawal is part of a series of steps the Biden administration has taken in past few months that indicate a White House resolve to recast its ties completely with Saudia. Apart from releasing the report that claimed Muhammad bin Salman’s direct involvement in the murder of Jamal Khashoggi in Saudi consulate in Turkey, the Biden administration has also released the FBI investigation into the 9/11 attacks. Although the report does not claim a direct involvement of Saudi regime in the attacks, it does show that the Saudis were aware of the movements of al-Qaeda and that the jihadi outfit operated inside the US with the active support of the Saudi government.

The Saudi response to the Biden administration’s steps is far from passive. In the immediate aftermath of the US decision to withdraw air defense systems from Saudia, Riyad cancelled the visit of Lloyd Austin to Saudi Arabia. Lloyd Austin, who was on a tour to Gulf to thank US allies for their support in Afghanistan, was specifically asked by the Saudis not to visit Riyadh. While there is no confirmation that the Saudi change of heart was due to the US withdrawal, it remains that Saudia’s decision to cancel Austin’s visit shows how their bi-lateral ties have nose-dived recently.

While some former and current Saudi officials have criticised the US decision to withdraw, the Saudis have been actively seeking to cultivate their ties with other countries as a means to diversify their ties and reduce dependence on the US.

As irony would have it, Riyadh has taken concrete steps to diversify its military ties with Russia, one of the main countries in the world to rival the US unilateralism. On August 24, Saudi Arabia and Moscow signed agreements that will give a major boost to their defense ties. By choosing to cooperate with Moscow, Riyadh managed, at least symbolically, to rebut the US. The message, therefore, was clear: the signing of this Saudi-Russian agreement—whatever it contains—in the wake of the downfall of the US-backed Afghan government and the rise of the Taliban in Afghanistan is a signal that Riyadh does not feel that it can fully rely on Washington and, so, is willing to hedge its bets by turning to Moscow.

So, while Riyad may be using its ties with Moscow to force Washington to change its behaviour, it remains that the change in US position vis-à-vis Saudia is indicative of a broader shift the US is in the middle of introducing. For Washington, the locus of future rivalry is not going to be the Middle East, or even Europe. If China is the most important country that truly rivals Washington’s economic and military might, the locus of tussle is Southeast Asia/the Indo-pacific region, rather than the Middle East. Therefore, if the US is withdrawing from the Middle East, it is only responding to the changing global geo-political realities.

For the Saudis, too, the US’ changing priorities mean that the Kingdom needs to find allies and partners willing to set their foot in the Middle East. This includes both Russia and China.

For the Saudis, however, changing the US attitude remains imperative. Many in the Kingdom feel that Riyadh is hardwired to Washington, and that breaking this connection is not easy. For one thing, even if Washington is in the middle of a strategic shift to Southeast Asia, the military industrial complex in the US sees Riyadh as too important a market to be left to the Russians and the Chinese to dominate. For the Saudis, however, it is equally important to read the global geo-political changes and make the necessary readjustments, even if it includes buying Russia S-400. The imperative for buying this system has been provided by the failure of US systems to prevent Houthi missiles from entering the Saudi airspace and causing the damage.

Developing strategic ties with Moscow, therefore, has both military/security and diplomatic needs for the kingdom. Given the damage, even the US military industrial complex will find it very hard to revert the US-Saudi ties back to the stage that characterised them during most of the period of the ‘war on terror.’

Salman Rafi Sheikh, research-analyst of International Relations and Pakistan’s foreign and domestic affairs, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”.

The ignominious US withdrawal from Afghanistan has blown a global hole in the post-1945 American Century system of elaborate world domination, a power vacuum that likely will lead to irreversible consequences. The immediate case in point is whether Biden’s Washington strategists—as he clearly makes no policy—have already managed to lose the support of its largest arms buyer and regional strategic ally, The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Since the first days of Biden’s inauguration in late January, US policies are driving the Saudi monarchy to pursue a dramatic shift in foreign policy. The longer-term consequences could be enormous.

Within their first week in office the Biden Administration indicated a dramatic shift in US-Saudi relations. It announced a freeze in arms sales to the Kingdom as it reviewed the Trump arms deals. Then in late February US intelligence issued a report condemning the Saudi government for the killing of Saudi Washington Post journalist Adnan Khashoggi in Istanbul in October, 2018, something the Trump Administration refused to do. That was joined by Washington’s lifting the anti-Saudi Yemeni Houthi leadership from the US terrorist list while ending US military support to Saudi Arabia in its Yemen war with Iran-backed Houthi forces, a move that emboldened the Houthis to pursue missile and drone attacks on Saudi targets.

Post-911 Pentagon Policy

While Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has so far been careful to avoid a rupture with Washington, the motion of his feet since the Biden regime shift in January has been significant. At the center is a series of secret negotiations with former arch-enemy Iran, and its new President. Talks began in April in Baghdad between Riyadh and Teheran to explore a possible rapprochement.

Washington geopolitical strategy for the past two decades has been to fire up the conflicts and bring the entire Middle East into chaos as part of a doctrine first endorsed by Cheney and Rumsfeld after September 11, 2001, sometimes referred to by the George W. Bush Administration as the Greater Middle East. It was formulated by the late US Admiral Arthur Cebrowski of Rumsfeld’s post-911 Pentagon Office of Force Transformation. Cebrowski’s assistant, Thomas Barnett , described the new strategy of deliberate chaos in his 2004 book, The Pentagon’s New Map : War and Peace in the Twenty-first Century, just after the unprovoked US invasion of Iraq. Recall that no one ever found evidence of Saddam’s Weapons of Mass Destruction.

Barnett was a professor at the US Naval War College and later strategist for the Israeli Wikistrat consultancy. As he described it, the entire national boundaries of the post-Ottoman Middle East carved out by the Europeans after World War I, including Afghanistan were to be dissolved, and present states balkanized into Sunni, Kurd, Shiite, and other ethnic or religious entities to ensure decades of chaos and instability requiring a “strong” US military presence to control. That became the two decades of US catastrophic occupation in Afghanistan and Iraq and beyond. It was deliberate chaos. Secretary of State Condi Rice said in 2006 that the Greater Middle East aka New Middle East would be achieved through ‘constructive chaos’. Because of a huge backlash from Saudi Arabia and other countries in the region the name was buried, but the chaos strategy remains.

The Obama “Arab Spring” Color Revolutions, which were launched in December 2010 with the CIA and Clinton State Department destabilizations of Tunisia, Egypt and Libya by US-backed networks of the Muslim Brotherhood, were further implementation of the new US policy of chaos and destabilization. The proxy US invasion of Syria then followed, as did Yemen with the covertly US-backed Houthi revolution against Yemen President Ali Abdullah Saleh in 2012.

The ongoing Teheran vs Riyadh conflict has its roots in that Cebrowski-Barnett Pentagon-CIA strategy. It marked and fed the split between pro-Muslim Brotherhood Qatar and anti-Brotherhood Riyadh in 2016, after which Qatar sought support from Iran and Turkey. It has marked the bitter proxy war in Syria between forces backed by Saudi Arabia against forces backed by Iran. It has marked the Saudi vs Teheran proxy war in Yemen, and the political stalemate in Lebanon. Now the Saudi regime under MBS appears to be embarking on a major turn away from that Shiite-Sunni war for domination of the Islamic world by pursuing peace with its foes including Iran.

Teheran is key

Under the Trump Administration, policy shifted from an apparent US backing of Iran under Obama with the 2015 nuclear JCPOA, and to the disadvantage of Saudis and Israel, over to a one-sided Trump-Kushner backing for Saudi Arabia and Israel, exiting the JCPOA, and imposing draconian economic sanctions on Teheran and other moves last embodied in the ill-conceived Abraham Accords aimed against Teheran.

MBS and the Saudis are clearly reading the handwriting on the wall from Washington and are moving to defuse multiple zones of conflict which had led it down a US-scripted dead end. Washington under Trump had fed MBS with arms galore (paid for with Saudi petrodollars) to fuel the conflicts. It has been a catastrophe for the Saudis. Now as it became clear that a Biden Administration also means no good for them, MBS and the Saudis have begun a strategic pivot towards ending all its conflicts within the Islamic world. The key to it all is Iran.

Back-channel talks

In April the Saudis began the first of what now have been three bilateral negotiations on stabilizing their relations with Iran, back-channel secret talks first in Iraq, then Oman. Baghdad has a major stake in such a peace as US policy in Iraq since 2003 has been to create chaos by pitting a majority Shiite against a 30% minority Sunni to sow civil war. In July Prime Minister al Kadhimi secured a Biden pledge to end US troop presence by year-end.

The Teheran-Riyadh back-channel talks reportedly involve Iran’s stance towards Washington under Biden Pentagon policies, as well as Iran’s willingness to de-escalate military presence in Syria and Yemen and Lebanon. Indirect talks between the US and Iran about a return to the 2015 nuclear deal were suspended after the Iranian elections in June. Iran also announced it was stepping up uranium enrichment.

The Saudi-Iran talks have included high-level persons from both sides, including Saudi chief of General Intelligence Directorate Khalid al-Humaidan and Iranian Deputy Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council , Saeed Iravani. Ongoing protests inside Iran over the economic costs of deployment of troops and aid to groups such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and Syria and Houthis in Yemen, are reportedly growing. This, at a time economic hardships caused by the US sanctions are severe, creates a strong incentive for Teheran to eventually compromise in a rapprochement with Riyadh. If it happens it will be a huge blow for US regional chaos strategy.

While no agreement is yet at hand, a fourth talk has just been announced which indicates a will to forge a compromise as soon as the government of newly-elected Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi is approved by the Majlis or parliament. A deal will not be easy, but both sides realize the status quo is a lose-lose proposition.

At the same time Iran under Raisi is playing hardball with Biden negotiators. Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is reportedly demanding that the Biden administration lift all sanctions on Iran and compensate it for the damage they caused, and have Iran recognized as a nuclear threshold state with the ability to produce a nuclear bomb within a short time. The US sanctions imposed in 2018 have caused a 250% annual rise in food prices and a free fall in the currency as oil revenues have plunged. Raisi is under enormous domestic pressure to change this, though Biden’s Washington to date refuses to lift sanctions as precondition to resuming JCPOA talks.

For Teheran the question is whether it is better to trust a rapprochement with the Saudi-led Arab Sunni Gulf states, or rely on Washington whose track record of broken promises is underscored by their catastrophic exit from Kabul.

Most recently Teheran has mended relations with the Afghan Taliban and US military equipment from Afghanistan taken by Taliban reportedly has been seen in Iran, suggesting a close Iran-Afghan cooperation that further works against Washington. At the same time Iran has agreed a $400 billion, 25-year economic strategic cooperation with China. However so far Beijing is apparently being cautious not to challenge US sanctions in any major way and is also pursuing closer ties with Saudi Arabia, Gulf Arab states as well as Israel. A Saudi-Iran rapprochement would further ease pressures on Iran.

The dramatic collapse of US presence in Afghanistan gives all parties a clear idea that, regardless of who is US President, US institutional powers behind the scenes pursue an agenda of destruction, and can no longer be relied on to be true to their promises of support.

The implications of a genuine Saudi-Iran agreement would be a major pivot in geopolitical terms. In addition to ending the Yemen war and the proxy Syrian war, it could end the destructive stalemate in Lebanon between Iran-backed Hezbollah and major Saudi interests there. Here is where the recent arms talks between Riyadh and Moscow become more than interesting.

Russia’s pivotal role

Into this geopolitical cocktail of competing interests, the role of Russia becomes strategic. Russia is the one major foreign military power that has aimed at ending the Sunni-Shiite proxy wars and creating stability across Eurasia into the Middle East, a direct challenge to Washington’s Cebrowski-Barnett strategy of deliberate instability and chaos.

In April this year Russian President Vladimir Putin and a delegation of business leaders made a rare visit to Riyadh, the first by Putin in 12 years. It was billed as an energy partnership meeting, but clearly was far more. Deals worth $2 billion were reported with agreements covering oil, space and satellite navigation, health, mineral resources, tourism and aviation. Both countries agreed to cooperate to stabilize oil prices, a major step. Putin and MBS stressed that oil and natural gas would continue to play a major role for years to come, a slap in the face of the Davos Great Reset green agenda. Russia’s RDIF Sovereign Wealth Fund also opened its first foreign office in Riyadh.

Taken alone it was interesting, but the fact it has been followed four months later by a visit by Saudi Arabia’s Vice Minister of Defense Prince Khalid bin Salman to Russia to the annual International Military Technical Forum (ARMY 2021) near Moscow, gives new significance to growing Saudi-Russian ties as well at a time Biden & Co. are “recalibrating” US-Saudi ties as the State Department put it, whatever that means. Khalid tweeted, “I signed an agreement with the Russian Deputy Minister of Defense Colonel General Alexander Fomin between the Kingdom and the Russian Federation aimed at developing joint military cooperation between the two countries.” Bin Salman also added, “Met with Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoygu to explore ways to strengthen the military and defense cooperation and discussed our common endeavor to preserve stability and security in the region.” Notably, Russia has conducted joint military exercises with Iran for the past several years and is also well suited to foster a Saudi-Iran detente.

The Moscow talks came only weeks after the Pentagon and Biden Administration announced it was removing eight Patriot anti-missile systems from Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Kuwait, and Iraq, as well as removing a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system from the Saudi Kingdom, and accelerating the withdrawal of US troops from the region, moves that hardly boost confidence in Washington as protector of Saudi Arabia. The world’s finest anti-missile defense technology, the S-400 air defense system, happens to be made in Russia, as do a broad array of other military equipment.

All these moves by the Saudis are clearly not going to lead to an overnight break with Washington. But clear is that the Saudi monarchy has understood, especially in the wake of the abrupt Biden abandonment of Afghanistan to the Taliban, that continued dependence on a US security umbrella it has enjoyed since the 1970’s oil shocks, is a fading illusion. MBS clearly realizes that he has been played by both Trump and now Biden. The tectonic plates of Middle East and Eurasian geopolitics are shifting and the implications are staggering.

F. William Engdahl is strategic risk consultant and lecturer, he holds a degree in politics from Princeton University and is a best-selling author on oil and geopolitics, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”.

In 2020, Saudi Arabia ranked sixth worldwide in military spending, totaling $57.5 billion spent. Presently, the largest suppliers of weapons to the kingdom are NATO member states, and above all the United States. The US Congress has repeatedly called for an end to arms sales to Riyadh in the face of the ongoing war in Yemen, but so far these initiatives have failed to gain traction. Moreover, until recently, Washington tried to exert complete control over Riyadh’s military cooperation with other states, under threat of sanctions, forbidding it to buy foreign military equipment anywhere but from the US and its “trusted allies,” even if it would be far more effective than American equipment. This, in particular, was repeatedly written about by the well-known US military and analytical publication The National Interest.

For example, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) has repeatedly considered the prospect of buying Russia’s S-400 Triumf missile defense system, already recognized worldwide as the most advanced and far superior to the current American models. Twice already, in 2009 and 2017, the KSA and Russia were close to reaching an agreement on the purchase of several divisions of S-400 by Riyadh, but, due to the pressure from Washington, the deal was never finalized. In particular, the administration of the previous US President, Donald Trump, desperately pressured Riyadh to, firstly, thwart this and other possible military deals with Moscow, and, secondly, to have the Saudis divert as much money as possible to the purchase of American weapons. The figures would reach as high as $400 billion.

Similar pressure was exerted by Washington in response to the Royal Saudi Arabian Air Force’s 2017 intention to replace the aging American F-15 Eagles with 12-18 next-generation Russian Su-35 fighters. But once again, the previous administration of Washington made every effort to prevent any rapprochement between Russia and Saudi Arabia, be it in the arms trade or in any other area.

Nevertheless, as a result of measures taken by Russia, some projects for the licensed production of certain advanced Russian military equipment in Saudi Arabia have been implemented, despite the desperate efforts of the US to prevent this. One example is Riyadh’s 2019 deal with Russian defense giant Rostec for domestic production of one of the world’s most advanced Russian AK-103 rifles, a derivative of the AK-74M, for the 7.62×39mm cartridge.

In 2017, after the Russian military successfully employed a number of Russian military equipment in the Syrian conflict, Saudi Arabian Military Industries (SAMI) signed a major contract with Rosoboronexport, Russia’s main arms export agency, for domestic production of Russian TOS-1A Solntsepek heavy flamethrower systems. Saudi experts have praised this military equipment, designed not only to disable lightly armored vehicles, but also to destroy enemy troops, both in open terrain and in buildings and shelters.

As part of the same 2017 bilateral technology transfer agreement with Russia, under which the KSA adopted the TOS-1A Solntsepek, SAMI purchased an improved version of the Kornet-EM, one of Russia’s most popular export military equipment in the Middle East, a “fire-and-forget” kind of weapon. Moreover, the Kornet with its tactical and technical characteristics and combat performance is not any worse than the well-publicized American anti-tank system Javelin, but it is 10 times cheaper and four times as far reaching – up to 10 km instead of 2.5.

Reaffirming Riyadh’s continued interest in purchasing the S-400 Triumf missile defense system from Russia, the Saudi authorities have shown interest in the Russian Abakan air defense system, the world’s first specialized system for countering high-speed high-altitude targets with ballistic trajectories. To date, Russia and Saudi Arabia have already held consultations and negotiations on the possible purchase of Abakan, which could become an alternative to the American Patriot SAMs. This is primarily due to the fact that Riyadh is not very happy with the effectiveness of the Patriot against missiles and drones that are launched from the territory of Yemen.

Ahmad Al Ohali, head of Saudi Arabia’s General Authority for Military Industry (GAMI), reported in the agency’s semi-annual report that there has been a 41% increase in the number of licensed defense companies since the beginning of the year. As part of the national strategy for the military industry sector, Saudi Arabia identified 11 target areas as priorities, developed a research roadmap, adopted an acquisition strategy, and determined how to encourage the military industry to flourish in the kingdom. Saudi Arabia is investing billions of dollars in its own defense industry to reduce dependence on imports, as well as to create new jobs in an area that involves the production of high value-added goods.

In addition, despite the continuing warnings from Washington, Riyadh increasingly focused on developing military cooperation with other world powers, not following US demands, but in its own interests of enhancing the combat capabilities of the Saudi armed forces and the kingdom’s security. As the Saudis themselves admit, the ongoing US sanctions threats ― one of them recently featured in an article in The New York Times ― played an important role in adjusting this approach. In it, in particular, representatives of the FBI indicated their intention to soon publish previously classified data on the September 11, 2001 attacks, which could shed light on the alleged direct involvement of Saudi Arabia in the attacks, causing new problems in the Saudi-American relations.

In these circumstances, at the Army-2021 military-technical forum held in Kubinka near Moscow on August 23, the deputy defense ministers of Saudi Arabia and Russia (Prince Khaled bin Salman Al Saud and Alexander Fomin, respectively) signed an agreement on military-technical partnership between the two countries. At a meeting with a delegation from Saudi Arabia, Defense Minister of Russia, Army General Sergei Shoigu said that the Russian military department is set for the dynamic development of military-technical cooperation with the kingdom.

According to the Saudi prince, Russia has extensive experience in creating products to meet various challenges and contribute to security, and Saudi Arabia is ready to take into account the experience gained by the Russian Federation. Prince Khaled bin Salman Al Saud stressed that his country is prepared to establish cooperation with Russia, which “will contribute to a common response to all modern challenges, something we will do together.”

 Vladimir Danilov, political observer, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”.