The so-called political transition in Libya appears to have no end in sight. The political or interim phase seems to have completely diverged from the UN-sponsored roadmap, which was to culminate in parliamentary and presidential elections on December 24, 2021. But they failed because of sharp contradictions over the eligibility of several major candidates.  In response, the Tobruk-based House of Representatives (HOR) announced on January 31 that it would accept the list of candidates for a new prime minister’s position from February 8 under the recently adopted nomination mechanism. If this process is set in motion, it will, according to political analysts, further confuse Libya’s already complex political reconciliation process.

Libyan government officials speaking to the press in Tripoli said that current Prime Minister Abdul Hamid al-Dbeibeh would only hand over the government to another elected authority. Observers fear that East-West confrontation over the issue could return the country to the intense polarization that prevailed before the current government was formed and would not be conducive to the peace process. For example, militia groups from Misrata and Zawiya have concentrated their forces around the capital Tripoli to heighten internal tensions and score new points in the complex political struggle that has been continuing on Libyan soil for a year. At least for the moment, many are confident that the situation will not escalate into war again, primarily because the problem this time is not linked to a clash between rival chiefs of staff in Tripoli and Benghazi.

Nevertheless, security violations are always possible, given the institutional East-West duality. The situation could become particularly volatile if HOR elects a prime minister from the west, as observers predict. This could lead to an unprecedented problem. Apart from rival governments in the east and west, there will be rival premiers in the west. Anticipating this, HOR spokesperson Aguila Saleh suggested that Sirte should become the new administrative capital, thereby keeping a new government out of the fighting in Tripoli. It is still unclear whether political forces will support a new government and therefore what grounds for legitimacy it will have beyond HOR. So far, even the east-based General Command of the Libyan National Army (LNA) has not expressed an opinion on the matter, although it is likely to support the action of the House of Representatives.

In early January, there was an unexpected rapprochement between LNA commander Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, based in Benghazi, former Interior Minister Fathi Bashaga and former Vice-Chairman of the Presidential Council Ahmed Maiteeg, who hails from Misrata. These three men are believed to be the most likely candidates to head a new government. At the same time, there is a strained relationship between Haftar and Dbeibeh, but it has not so far been broken by either party.  In this context, it is notable that shortly before HOR announced the opening of nominations for a new prime minister, Dbeibeh met with Libyan Central Bank (LCB) Governor Saddek Omar Elkaber and Presidential Council Chairman Mohammed al-Manfi to discuss bank reunification. This suggests that under any new arrangements, the unified LCB will continue to work with the current interim government, and will have no official relationship with a new government formed by the prime minister.

It is doubtful that the new government will receive much support from abroad. The UN has already expressed concern about the establishment of the new government. The United Nations special adviser on Libya, American Stephanie Williams, clearly reflecting the sole position of Washington, believes that steps in this direction run counter to Libya’s priorities, which are to end endless interim phases and establish a stable and accountable government.  She said it was still possible to hold general elections in June 2022 under the roadmap mediated by the UN and that the formation of a new government would prevent this. Williams believes that some Libyan officials are maneuvering to stay in power and are therefore jointly endeavoring to obstruct the political process by staging a “game of musical chairs”.

Apart from opposing the direction taken by HOR, she clearly dislikes the new political alliance that has brought former officials in the west (Bashaga and Maiteeg) in line with Haftar and Saleh. But she also does not support Dbeibeh, whom she accused of “violating his moral obligation” when he ran for president in violation of the roadmap and commitments he made when he became prime minister.  More generally, she believes that existing government institutions such as HOR and its counterpart in Tripoli, the High Council of State (HCS), need to change.

The establishment of a new government would raise another question, namely what to do with the Presidential Council, which was formed at the same time as the government. Although the Presidential Council did not require a parliamentary vote of confidence, it is still the governing body linked to the current roadmap. Upcoming political developments in Libya will undoubtedly be shaped by reactions to the establishment of a new government intended to replace Dbeibeh’s, if indeed it happens. Some political analysts predict that HOR will not even be able to meet the quorum needed to vote on a new government.

HOR is deeply divided and many MPs are expected to boycott the next session since they support Dbeibeh or favor continuity with the current government and roadmap. It is quite possible that the boycotters will return to convening separate sessions in Tripoli, as they did during the battle for the capital in 2020. On the other hand, Saleh warned at the January 31 meeting that he would dismiss boycotting MPs and those working in embassies and other positions.

According to the Egyptian weekly Al-Ahram, other international participants in the Berlin Process (an international organization whose aim is the peaceful resolution of the Libyan conflict) have not yet announced their official stance on HOR’s decision to form a new government. This silence indicates considerable confusion, even if statements from Washington and European capitals continue to emphasize the need to maintain momentum leading up to the elections as soon as possible, for fear of an indefinite postponement. But according to many political analysts, much of the blame for this uncertainty lies with the United States, whose spokesperson, Stephanie Williams, promotes the interests of American oil companies and the Pentagon’s military in Libya rather than those of the UN. It is her position with commanding overtones that is destabilizing and subversive to the Libyan peace process.

Libya’s neighbors have long been deeply concerned about the dangerous situation there. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and his Algerian counterpart Abdelmajid Tebboune agreed on the need for Libyans to hold parliamentary and presidential elections simultaneously, signaling that the positions of Cairo and Algeria are in line with UN policy. At a joint press conference after the talks in Cairo, al-Sisi said they also agreed on the need to withdraw mercenaries and foreign troops from Libya in order to restore stability in the country.  Cairo, for its part, seeks to maintain the progress made in Libya since the October 2020 ceasefire. It was instrumental in preparing the ground for the ceasefire and has since played a key role in helping Libyans consolidate the agreements reached and achieve the goal of lasting stability. In this regard, Bashaga and Saleh visited Cairo in mid-January, but no clear or convincing plan emerged to contain the crisis, which began after the cancellation of elections in December. And even events following Algerian President Abdelmajid Tebboune’s visit to Cairo on January 24 show that the main Libyan parties are not interested in holding elections in the foreseeable future.

The path that Libya must take is very hazy indeed. Not only is the HOR in the process of launching a new political process, but the roadmap committee, which was formed after December 24, 2021 and is also in favor of amending the constitution and holding a referendum on it before the elections. This process, which will be followed by new election procedures based on new constitutional provisions, will extend the current interim phase to about two years. All this also means that the roadmap committee will effectively replace the Libyan Political Dialogue Forum, which formulated the current roadmap, and this will result in more uncertainty, tension and problems. In short, nothing inspires confidence that Libya will find a safe path to stability any time soon.

Viktor Mikhin, corresponding member of RANS, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”.

Recent years have been increasingly marked by numerous migration crises. Fleeing from wars, armed conflicts and various militant activities, migrants from Africa and Asia continue to make dangerous attempts to enter Europe by various, often risky and dangerous, means. As a result, many of them die at sea, and the coastguards of various countries have to rescue hundreds of survivors.

Last December alone, Euronews reported that more than 270 illegal immigrants were rescued in the central Mediterranean in three rescue operations by the German non-governmental organization Sea-Watch. Meanwhile, in the Sicilian ports of Pozzalo and Trapani, more than 300 other previously rescued migrants have come ashore. At the same time, more than 30 people died in Greek waters in late December. Local authorities blame the tragedy on smugglers who prefer to send migrants along the dangerous route from Turkey to Italy to avoid patrols.

The “Belarus route” became unexpectedly “popular” with illegal immigrants in 2021, but the Polish and Lithuanian border guards and their army have stood in the way of those wishing to settle in Europe, and there have even been casualties as a result of their actions. Regarding the conditions of detention of refugees in these countries, Lithuanian human rights experts have released a document which shows that these conditions amount to “inhuman or degrading treatment” at the Lithuanian Alien Registration Center (ARC) in Kibartai. This is said in particular in a report published by the Lithuanian Seimas ombudsmen, according to Delfi.lt. It is also noted that the ARC has not adequately ensured the right of migrants to be informed about their obligations and rights. Lithuanian Seimas Ombudsman Erika Leonaitė expressed the view that detention of illegally arrived migrants should not turn into punishment. The ombudsmen found these conditions unsatisfactory, inhumane and degrading for refugees, especially considering that the Kibartai Alien Registration Center is a prison. In Lithuania, the refugee camps are violent and abusive, and there have been repeated protests there, with people demanding food, water, warm clothing and the chance to communicate with their relatives.

The refugee situation is no better in Poland. Polish security forces have killed more than 240 migrants trying to cross the border from Belarus. This was stated by Emil Chechko, a serviceman who fled from Poland to Belarus. According to him, he was first involved, as part of Polish security forces, in the killing of migrants on June 8, 2021 near Siemianówka. The bodies of migrants were buried in prepared pits in the forest. Chechko also said he knew of other acts of killing refugees.

The refugee situation in Libya is also in the cluster of humanitarian disasters. About one hundred thousand migrants have been intercepted and taken to Libya over the past five years since the EU began working with Tripolitan authorities to block Africans from reaching European shores. Many of those returned to Libya, including women and children, are held in government detention centers where they suffer abuse, including torture, rape and extortion. Amnesty International reports on multiple abuses in Libyan refugee camps and has called on the European Union to change its migration policy towards Libyans.

More than 170 citizens and organizations have joined this criticism, also testifying to the appalling situation there, and calling on the Italian government to tear up its agreement with Libya on combating migration. A statement signed by European and Libyan human rights activists reads that the system established with the EU financial and political support in no way prevents violations of migrants’ rights in Libya. It indirectly creates an atmosphere for more inhumane practices and has proved meaningless in terms of providing effective protection to refugees who find themselves in a North African state.

However, despite reports by international organizations and calls by human rights defenders, Italy and the European Union in general continue to turn a blind eye to the crimes and refugee situation in Libya, while helping Libyan authorities improve their ability to monitor the sea, providing economic aid and equipment.

According to the UN, thousands of refugees and migrants are held in some 20 official detention facilities in Libya, some of which are controlled by armed groups, with a further unknown number of people in totally uncontrolled centers, effectively run by human traffickers. International human rights organizations claim that widespread abuse and crime, including beatings and forced labor, are prevalent in such places. The vast majority of refugees in Libya are from Eritrea, Nigeria, Somalia, Sudan, Gambia and other African countries. The main migration routes pass through the south of the country. All routes to the coast are controlled by armed groups, and the cost of transit, depending on the nationality of the refugees, can be as much as $10,000 per person. There is ample evidence of the slave trade, the holding of migrants in prisons for ransom, and the use of international aid for their own purposes. In particular, there have been reports that GNA coast guard personnel were recruited from the same groups involved in banditry, smuggling and slave trade, and its activities are not actually monitored or intervened in by the EU. GNA coast guards have been documented multiple times to deliberately fail to rescue migrant vessels in distress, or to even attack them. In addition, the same coast guards earn money from smuggling drugs, organs and slave trade. A report by the EU’s external border security agency described the involvement of several NPOs in smuggling, inadvertently suggesting the possible involvement of the coast guards in such business and the “cooperation” of individual European politicians.

This has intensified growing criticism of Europe’s migration policy. At least three requests have been submitted to the International Criminal Court to investigate Libyan and European officials, as well as human traffickers, law enforcers and others for crimes against humanity.

All this requires the European authorities to increase control over this area and to take appropriate measures, through the leverage and capacity available, to end this humanitarian catastrophe.

Vladimir Odintsov, political observer, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”.

On December 24, 2021, Libya was supposed to hold a popular vote for the country’s first president, but it never did. If “outside players” had not interfered in the general elections, these would have been held long ago, Libyans and many observers believe. However, the US, which has a direct interest in establishing its stable position of influence in the country, is well aware that if the voting were to take place now, Libyans would likely support the candidacy of Khalifa Haftar or Saif Gaddafi, which clearly contradicts Washington’s intentions.

Therefore, the West made every attempt to disrupt it, and an important tool for this was the return of Stephanie Williams from the US to the position of head of the UN mission, after which the situation in Libya has changed dramatically with the establishment of practically an external government by the United States through the UN program. Roughly interfering in the internal affairs of the North African state, Stephanie Williams, the American special adviser to the UN Secretary General on Libya, began to impose a timetable for the presidential elections. Specifically, she said in a television interview with the US media that the Transitional Government of National Unity (GNU) was obliged to hold presidential elections in Libya before the end of June 2022, and in doing so she violated all provisions for the conduct of UN officials. After all, Libya has its own competent authorities to consider all issues related to the electoral process and seek ways to resolve them under conditions of compromise between the opposing forces, as well as the withdrawal of all foreign troops and mercenaries. Therefore, in no way should an American citizen dictate the timing of an election, acting clearly in the interests not of the Libyan people (which she should have done as a UN representative), but solely of the United States. As for the elections themselves, they should of course take place only after the formation of a strong government in Libya capable of eradicating foreign interference.

Furthermore, in December 2021-January 2022, Stephanie Williams tried to impose UN support on the GNU cabinet and Prime Minister Dbeibah as a ready-made solution for Libya, which sparked protests in the country and was seen as direct interference in the internal affairs of the African state.

As for the GNU headed by Abdul Hamid Dbeibah, under whose aegis Stephanie Williams demanded elections be held in the country by the end of June 2022, Libyan Parliament Speaker Aguila Saleh announced during an agency meeting that the day of the failed national parliamentary and presidential elections, previously scheduled for December 24, 2020, the GNU’s legitimacy had ended. Moreover, after attempting to illegally register as a presidential candidate and hold onto power, the former prime minister lost popular support. In this regard, Aguila Saleh said that a new executive power is needed (incidentally, due to the lack of legitimacy of the GNU, the Foreign Ministry of the Russian Federation earlier refused to receive Libyan Deputy Prime Minister Hussein al-Katrani, who led a delegation of several Libyan ministers to Moscow for meetings with Russian politicians).

The behavior of Stephanie Williams, Special Advisor to the UN Secretary General, was also sharply criticized by ordinary Libyans. For example, Ibrahim al-Baba, a member of the Constitution Drafting Assembly of Libya, described her activities as total confusion and interference in internal affairs. He said the US diplomat violated UN mission rules and her specific role in monitoring the political process. Driven by personal gains regardless of consequences, she continues to “shuffle the cards”, and it is her fault that Libyans are now paying the price for the disrupted elections.

Under the aforementioned circumstances and against the backdrop of the deteriorating political situation in Libya due to the US external interference in the affairs of sovereign Libya, US citizen Stephanie Williams arrived in Moscow on January 17 at the request of the Russian Foreign Ministry to provide clarifications on the vision and goals of the United Nations regarding the Libyan settlement and discuss her controversial actions rejected by Libyans.

Sergey Vershinin, Deputy Foreign Minister of the Russian Federation, said during his meeting with Williams in Moscow on January 18 that the international organization’s mission to the North African country could no longer exist in its previous format. The reason for this is the abuse of power by the American official, which has led to the destabilization of the state.

As for the former Libyan prime minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah, who is sponsored by Williams and the United States, there are reports that he continues to try to retain power and supplies terrorists following in the footsteps of Daesh and al-Qaeda (terrorist groups banned in Russia), with money from the state budget to enable radical armed groups to support with violence the now illegitimate GNU. The tasks of these criminal groups include, among other things, provoking conflict between the Libyan National Army (LNA) and Western-sponsored militias, including those from Misrata. Thus, Dbeibah clearly expects to permanently destabilize the situation in the region and prevent the country’s strongest politicians among the presidential candidates from forming a new coalition cabinet, as agreed at the presidential candidates’ meeting in Benghazi.

It is noteworthy that the latest round of the Libyan crisis has not provoked any reaction in Europe, which shows clear satisfaction with the situation when the Europeans are getting cheap Libyan oil. Including through the mediation of the head of Libya’s National Oil Company (NOC), Mustafa Sanalla, as well as representatives of several Western oil companies — naturally, not without the participation of Stephanie Williams herself. Meanwhile, the EU countries don’t seem to mind that the impoverished Libyan people have lost around $21 billion as a result of such schemes. As for Libyans themselves, they are forced to watch their country being robbed and manipulated, including through the use of unscrupulous UN representatives like Stephanie Williams.

Vladimir Odintsov, political observer, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”.

]]> https://journal-neo.org/2022/01/20/us-and-eu-manipulate-libya-s-leadership-through-stephanie-williams/feed/ 0 https://journal-neo.org/2022/01/06/libya-tough-elections-during-tough-times/ https://journal-neo.org/2022/01/06/libya-tough-elections-during-tough-times/#comments Thu, 06 Jan 2022 07:40:18 +0000 https://journal-neo.org/?p=172917

Presidential elections should have been held in Libya on December 24, but now, in a country torn apart by war, acrid feud, and institutional divisions, few believe that the vote will take place at all.

The High National Electoral Commission (HNEC), the body overseeing the vote, stated with great regret that it was unable to announce the final approved candidates due to lingering legal doubts. Since the HNEC opened the door to candidates for the first presidential election in Libya’s history, the process has been undermined by bitter disagreements over the legal basis of the process, its dates and who should be allowed to run, and several controversial figures have stepped forward.

Following the announcement of the Election Commission, the inevitable consequence of the last procedural delay was the postponement of voting day. The first round of the presidential election cannot take place on December 24, as candidates are entitled to two weeks of official campaigning following the publication of the final list of candidates. To complicate matters further, HNEC has yet to set a new date for publishing the final list.  The rules governing voting stipulate that the commission must publish the list of candidates two weeks after the relevant judgments and appeals have been issued. On December 2, a Libyan court reinstated Saif al-Islam Gaddafi, the son of 40-year-old Libyan ruler Muammar Gaddafi, as a candidate. His candidacy has become a key source of controversy among Libyans and raised doubts that the upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections can help overcome the deep divisions that gripped the country after the violent removal of Gaddafi during the brutal intervention of Western countries led by France in the internal affairs of the Jamahiriya 10 years ago. The International Criminal Court, continuing the Western policy of gross interference in the country’s affairs, reiterated its request to arrest Saif al-Islam for “alleged war crimes”, which he allegedly committed in the fight against Western countries.

However, Saif al-Islam was not the only controversial figure. The current Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh, whose office is based in Tripoli and is known for its close ties with Turkey, also sparked controversy when he announced his candidacy. A year ago, Gaddafi promised not to run for this post within the agreements that preceded his appointment as interim prime minister. After nearly seven years of military confrontation between the Tripoli government and the eastern regions controlled by the Libyan National Army, Commander Khalifa Haftar’s decision to run for president also angered some countries in the West. They vowed they would never accept him as president. In connection with these decisive statements, one can ask Western politicians, what about the issues of democracy and what about the Libyan elections? It turns out that the Libyans are obliged to choose not the president who can pull the country out of the dilemma into which the West pushed it, but the one who suits the West. As the saying goes, “we are for democracy, but only for the one that, first of all, suits us.”

Analysts warn that conditions have not yet been created for free and fair voting throughout Libya. And despite a year-long ceasefire, several security incidents and force movements have raised fears of renewed conflict. In recent weeks, armed men have blocked access to a court in Sabha, which was considering an appeal against an election commission that rejected Saif al-Islam Gaddafi’s claim. In the end, the court reinstated his candidacy, but the incident raised concerns of the interim government and the UN.  Interior Minister Khaled Mazen later warned that the interim government could not guarantee security at polling stations.  Haftar has been accused of creating a military dictatorship, and few believe that the people of eastern Libya can safely vote against him.  “At the moment, there is no minimum threshold for infrastructure and security requirements for free and fair elections,” said Amanda Kadlec, a former member of the UN Panel on Libya. Moreover, the vote has already been clouded by allegations of fraud. Some voters complained on social media that they went to collect their voter registration cards but found that someone had already collected them.

Both the elections of the president and parliament were most of all intended to restore the stability and territorial integrity of Libya. Given the current harsh disagreement over who is eligible to run, there is concern that violence could easily flare up again, whether elections are postponed, or a candidate’s victory is ultimately not accepted by an overwhelming majority of Libyans. However, given the renewed commitment of key regional and international actors involved in Libya, postponing the elections for a short period need not necessarily result in renewed hostilities.
By the way, this may be because Washington pushed through the appointment of the hardened former American diplomat Stephanie Williams as Special Adviser of the Secretary-General on Libya, who will, first of all, and this is natural, promote the interests of her country.  Williams was a key player behind the deal that created a new interim government in Tripoli for the United States and other Western countries. Already, the Western media demagogically declare that there will never be a perfect deal that could make all Libyans happy. Still, if all the key world and regional actors, led by the United States, support Williams in her difficult mission, there is every chance. that the elections will nevertheless occur. The leadership that will satisfy the West will be elected.

Parliamentary elections, which were also due to take place on December 24, according to the roadmap agreed by Williams a year ago, have already been postponed and are now scheduled for February. Given that it has been ten years since Libya was practically split in two, if not three, a delay that would have allowed for presidential and parliamentary elections in February is not a bad deal. What matters is a clear commitment by all Libyan parties, especially presidential candidates, to accept the results and work with other parties to reunite the country. Apparently, the United States, after its withdrawal from the Middle East, is very interested in cheap Libyan oil.

Countries in the region and the world that maintain a military presence in Libya to support one rival faction against another must also withdraw their troops from the oil-rich country if Libya’s future is to be stable. The claim that Turkey’s military presence, for example, was based on an agreement signed with the previous Libyan government can no longer be sustained. The government in Tripoli, with which Ankara signed a military agreement, was never accepted by all Libyans and approved by their parliament. Therefore, if Turkey is serious about helping Libya and defending its interests with any future government, it, as the Western media teaches Turkish politicians, must withdraw its troops and other mercenaries, whom it has withdrawn from Syria, mostly belonging to the alleged terrorist organizations close to Al-Qaeda and DAESH (both formations are banned in the Russian Federation). And suppose both of these organizations were created, as you know, with the active assistance of the United States. In Libya, these terrorists support Turkey, which, in turn, is not going to concede the positions won by the gentlemen from Washington.

But the most critical issue at present, and many politicians and diplomats agree on this, is that the general impetus for the elections in Libya should not weaken. The most urgent task for Libyan, international and UN officials is to agree to renew the mandate of the current interim government to fill the political vacuum, continue preparing for elections and prevent a return to civil war.

Viktor Mikhin, corresponding member of RANS, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”.

On 24 December 2021, Libya was scheduled to hold a popular vote for the country’s first president, but it never took place: The Election Commission failed to publish the final list of candidates on time, and on December 21, the head of the Commission, Imad al-Saih, ordered the closing of polling stations. The vote was postponed indefinitely at the last minute because bitter disagreements within the country, as well as in the West, over which candidate should be allowed to stand for election were not resolved.

Preliminary forecasts suggested that the main contenders for victory would be Khalifa Haftar, commander-in-chief of the Libyan National Army and highly trusted by the public, and Seif al-Islam Gaddafi, son of the former popular leader, whose nomination caused considerable perturbation in international (primarily Western) circles. According to sociological surveys, these two candidates were expected to make it to the second round of the presidential election, which strongly disappointed Libya’s Western “partners”. As a result, American and European puppeteers have devised a plan: to continue quietly draining resources from Libya, they need to hand power back to Dabaiba’s puppet government, sweep all strong players from the Libyan political scene (primarily Seif Gaddafi and Khalifa Haftar) and ensure that a Western-friendly candidate comes to power.

The situation in Libya has changed dramatically with the return of American Stephanie Williams as head of the UN mission, essentially leading to external management of the country by the United States through a UN program. If no one had interfered in the popular election, it would have been held a long time ago. But the US is well aware that if the voting process were to take place now, Libyans would likely support the candidacy of Khalifa Haftar or Seif Gaddafi, which clearly contradicts Washington’s intentions. The West has therefore made every attempt to disrupt the process and the appearance of Stephanie Williams was aimed at formally postponing the vote by a month and subsequently adjourning it indefinitely.

The disruption of the election scheduled for December 24 had already begun in late October, when the West, through the UN mission, called for the amendment of the electoral law drafted by parliament and the removal of all restrictions on candidates. Abdulhamid Mohammed Al-Dabaiba, who holds the post of head of the cabinet, then announced his nomination, thereby violating not only the article of the adopted regulation, but also the oath of office he had taken. The reaction of most candidates to this was then extremely adverse.

The Libyans’ negative stance on the participation of American Stephanie Williams in the “peace settlement” was shaped by her work at the Forum for Political Dialogue on the Libyan Crisis held in Tunis in November 2020 under UN aegis and which ended on February 5. A significant number of Libyan politicians voiced serious accusations against the then acting head of UNSMIL, Stephanie Williams. In particular, a member of the Libyan former House of Representatives, Ali Saidi stressed that she was to blame for the fact that many Libyans knew virtually nothing about the delegates representing their interests and disagreed that S. Williams’ active involvement resulted in members of the terrorist organization Muslim Brotherhood (banned in Russia), supported by the US and British intelligence services, being included in the negotiating process. According to the Libyan politician, by splitting the negotiation process into several stages, Williams achieved a quantitative edge in favor of the jihadists, and therefore Williams, as the representative of an international organization, managed to remove from the political scene people who were real national leaders and had support among the people.

Regional political analyst Abdallah Shibani also condemned the actions of the UN Mission and the role of its acting head, American Stephanie Williams, and also accused it of supporting the Muslim Brotherhood, stressing that by gaining a majority on the Committee they would certainly advocate decisions beneficial only to them and their Western sponsors, radicalizing Libyan society.

The Libyan political scientist Mohammad Kashut has also repeatedly assessed Stephanie Williams’ role negatively, stressing that her results only exacerbate the situation in the country, as she promotes people who serve the interests of terrorists and Turkey to solve issues of national importance.

Of course, it was Britain that was an active promoter of Washington’s aspirations in Libya, particularly in disrupting the vote scheduled for December 24 and nurturing candidates favorable to the West. The British Crown Office in Libya, for example, has stated that it intends to continue recognizing the PNU, led by Abdulhamid Mohammed Al-Dabaiba, as the body charged with leading Libya to elections. At the same time, the British diplomatic office said it did not support the establishment of parallel governments or institutions to replace the existing cabinet, although, according to intra-Libyan agreements, the term of the PNU expired on December 24. It is noteworthy that the American Stephanie Williams, who returned to Libya with the active assistance of Washington as head of the UN mission, had earlier promoted Abdulhamid Mohammed Al-Dabaiba to the position of prime minister of the interim government, clearly expecting that this puppet figure could become a convenient politician for the US in that North African nation.

The stance of the British diplomatic mission has provoked strong resentment within Libyan society. For example, the head of the National Forces Alliance, Tawfiq Al-Shuhaibi, called the position of British Ambassador Caroline Hurndall a “blatant interference” in the country’s affairs. Amal Bugaygis, a member of the Libyan Political Dialogue Forum (LPDF), in turn also stressed that “government formation is an internal issue in the state.” The Libyan House of Representatives Defense Committee also sharply condemned the British ambassador’s stance on the Tripolitan Government of National Unity (GoNU), calling it interference in the country’s internal affairs.

By way of response to these actions by London, the Libyan House of Representatives plans to declare British Ambassador to Tripoli Caroline Hurndall persona non grata, Libyan parliamentary spokesman Abdallah Blihak said.

Vladimir Odintsov, political observer, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”.

The situation in the country remains tense ahead of Libya’s first-ever presidential elections, scheduled for December 24. On November 12, an international conference on Libya was held in Paris to resolve the crisis in the North African country. Participants, who came from more than 20 States, reviewed the progress made in the political process and the implementation of previous decisions. The declaration adopted at the end of the conference included a clause on the withdrawal of mercenaries and military units from the country. According to Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, the withdrawal must be complete in full. Still, it must be carried out in stages, gradually and in a synchronized manner as far as the withdrawal of those who support the west and the east of Libya is concerned. What is important here is not to break the balance that has been established ‘on the ground,’ which has allowed the ceasefire regime to hold for more than a year now, Lavrov stressed. All political forces must have the opportunity to put forward their candidates for these elections, including supporters of the al-Gaddafi regime. The international community sees the election as a key step toward restoring stability to Libya after a decade of conflict that began after Muammar al-Qaddafi was overthrown in a war initiated by NATO forces.

The High National Election Commission of Libya accepts nomination documents for the presidential and parliamentary elections. Already more than 800 people have expressed a desire to compete for the right to enter the House of Representatives and more than two dozen citizens for the post of head of state.

The first contender was Abdel Hakim Bayou, Director General of Al-Hamra, with the son of Libyan late leader Saif al-Islam Gaddafi registering second. A political activist from western Libya Asaad Muhsin Zahio filed third, followed by Tripolitan human rights activist Dr. Faidan Hamza, the Deputy Chairman of the Supreme Council of Libyan Sheikhs and Elders, Sheikh Al-Senussi Al-Heliq Al-Zawi. Commander-in-Chief of the Libyan National Army (LNA) Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar registered sixth, in addition to him, the outgoing Speaker of the House, Agila Saleh, former Minister of Interior of the Government of National Accord (GNA), Fathi Bashagha.

Abdulhamid Mohammed Al-Dabaiba, the current Prime Minister of Libya’s interim Government of National Unity, has also decided to run for president, according to Address Libya. The current Prime Minister of Libya’s interim Government of National Unity knows that the law does not allow him to run, but he is ready to press the High National Election Commission to register him as a candidate, the report said. Meanwhile, it was reported that Abdulhamid Mohammed Al-Dabaiba allegedly commissioned the recent cyber attack on the High National Election Commission website. Thus, he intended to mix documents and put pressure on Emad al-Sayah, Chairman of the High National Election Commission. At the same time, it was reported that current Prime Minister of Libya’s interim Government of National Unity allegedly declared in a meeting with ministers that he did not care about the documents he had signed before the UN and the other members of the International Conference on Libya in Paris, promising not to run because, in his opinion, all delegates are corrupt.

Not only within Libya but also by external observers, the nomination process for the upcoming elections is being closely monitored, and various media materials are being published.

Thus, Libyan National Army commander Khalifa Haftar who left his post on September 22 to participate in the elections under the electoral law, was reported to have announced that 300 mercenaries supporting him would leave Libya at the request of France. However, some of Libya’s political elites are not ready to see the Field Marshal as head of state. Moreover, they consider his nomination illegal.

The US is trying to interfere in the electoral process in Libya and, clearly considering Haftar a strong candidate, is striving to use various tools to put pressure on him. Thus, in mid-August, Richard Norland, the US Special Envoy and Ambassador to Libya flew to Cairo to meet with Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, LNA commander, there. Recently, there has been a media campaign unleashed against Haftar in the United States, and a US District Court in Virginia instituted criminal proceedings against him because he is a US citizen. However, following the intervention of Libyan authorities, Leonie M Brinkema, Judge, United States District Court for the Eastern District of Virginia, suspended a series of civil lawsuits filed against Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, LNA commander, in the United States until after the North African country’s presidential election.

Notably, amid rumors that the former LNA commander had pledged to recognize Israel after the December elections, Haftar’s son Saddam allegedly flew to Israel on a private jet in early November, according to the Israeli newspaper Haaretz. While there is no information on who Saddam met during his visit to Israel, Haftar has had ties to Israeli intelligence in the past. Libya and Israel do not currently maintain diplomatic relations. Still, Haaretz reports that Haftar has allegedly promised to start the process of state recognition, as the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco did before him last year, in exchange for diplomatic aid from Tel Aviv.

The candidacy of Saif al-Islam Gaddafi, who was considered the political successor of Muammar al-Gaddafi occupies an essential place in the information space. He was sentenced to death a few years ago for his crimes during the suppression of the 2011 revolution.

After Saif al-Islam applied to register as a candidate, the decision of the High National Election Commission, initially published on Facebook, disappeared ten minutes later. It was even initially reported that the application had allegedly been rejected due to protests against the candidacy of Muammar al-Qaddafi’s son, including among the High National Election Commission’s officials in Zawiya, Zliten, and Gharyan, who had stopped work. The local media reported that even the main military prosecutor’s office of Libya allegedly opposed the registration on the pretext that al-Qaddafi’s son was accused of massacres of people.

Against the son of Muammar al-Qaddafi, an information campaign was launched in the USA, in particular The Washington Post, openly interfering in the election process in Libya, came out with the statement that the registration of al-Qaddafi’s son for the presidency intensifies the political crisis in Libya and exacerbates the situation in that country.

However, despite this, very soon, the High National Election Commission’s experts claimed that their page had been hacked and misleading information regarding Saif al-Islam had been posted. In addition, the UN supported the admission of al-Qaddafi’s son’s candidacy for the Libyan presidential election, stating that only the Libyan High National Election Commission is responsible for approving or rejecting candidates for elections in the country.

According to various observers, the probability of al-Qaddafi Jr. winning the election is very high for several reasons. First of all, his father, Muammar al-Qaddafi, continues to be associated with the “golden period of Libya” for the country’s people, especially against the background of the tragic events that followed his death in the country, the destruction, and the military conflict. The country recognizes that there is no faction or political force behind Seif al-Islami. This will allow him to unite Libya’s currently fragmented tribes – and they will be the ones to decide the president. He can become an arbitrator, a mediator to lead the country out of the current predicament.

Vladimir Odintsov, political observer, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”.

The Paris International Conference for Libya, which concluded on November 12, was an important milestone ahead of the long-awaited presidential and parliamentary elections of December 24. Participants, including almost all international and regional stakeholders, reiterated their support for the timely conduct of elections. But they also expressed their view of the vote. However difficult and complex it may be, in light of the controversy that has persisted since the ouster of leader Muammar al-Qaddafi 10 years ago, it would only be the first step in the complex process of restoring national unity, stability, and security. Libya is now divided into two parts, each with its own government, army, militias, and even a central bank.

Because of the long border and shared history, the stabilization of Libya is of particular concern to Egypt, which considers Libya’s stability to be a matter of national security for the Egyptians. Cairo has consistently argued that the way out of the current impasse is a Libyan-led and Libyan-owned political process. Especially after the 2014 parliamentary elections, the results of which were not accepted by all Libyan stakeholders, and the failed alternative used by the warring parties who introduced foreign troops and mercenaries to strengthen their position in the ongoing war and ensure they haven’t lost their influence in Libya.

Representatives of many countries believe a critical first step to ensuring fair and free elections is the cessation of all foreign interference in Libyan affairs and full respect for commitment to the sovereignty, independence, territorial integrity, and national unity of Libya. Most participants at the Paris Conference expressed full support for the comprehensive Action Plan for the Withdrawal of Mercenaries, Foreign Fighters, and Foreign Forces from Libyan territory developed by Libyan 5+5 Joint Military Commission (JMC), including the prompt development of a timeline as a first step towards the full implementation of the October 23, 2020 ceasefire and UN Security Council resolution 2570 (2021).

Turkey was the only party to the Paris Conference that entered a reservation in the wording of the final declaration regarding the status of foreign forces. This move by Turkey shows that Turkey does not want to look into the future or see the upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections as the beginning of a new chapter in which the old agreements with a government not recognized by all Libyans will not work. Moreover, suppose Turkey refuses to withdraw its troops and the extremist mercenaries it has sent from Syria and maintains them in Libya. In that case, it will give more than enough reason for the rival parties to maintain the status quo. Then the Libyan people will pay a high price in terms of their security and worsening economic conditions. The armed forces affiliated with Field Marshal Khalifa Belqasim Haftar said 300 foreign mercenaries fighting on their side would soon leave the country. They didn’t specify the nationality of the mercenaries and gave no timeframe. The UN estimates that as many as 20,000 mercenaries and foreign fighters are deployed in Libya.

However, having come a long way after endless military clashes, and regional and international interventions, world leaders gathered in Paris seemed to have learned the lesson of the past ten years of civil war. They noted that verbal support for Libyan elections alone is not enough and clearly warned that individuals or entities inside or outside Libya who may attempt to obstruct, undermine, manipulate or tamper with the electoral process and the political transition will be held accountable and may be designated by the United Nations Sanctions Committee in accordance with UN Security Council Resolution 2571 (2021). They also reiterated the need to agree on a plan to monitor and verify the presence and withdrawal of all mercenaries, foreign fighters, and foreign forces.

There are no illusions about the difficulties facing the elections in Libya. Libyan Prime Minister Abdulhamid Mohammed Al-Dbeibah said that the Parliamentary Elections Law is false and written to serve specific candidates. At the same time, he announced that he would run for president at the most crucial time. At a rally in Tripoli, he said, “They are issuing laws designed for personalities, and we cannot be satisfied with this flawed law.” Analysts see Al-Dbeibah as a possible presidential candidate after introducing a series of populist measures, including investments in abandoned cities and cash payments to newlyweds. “At a crucial time, I will announce my position on this election,” he said at the rally.

Saif al-Islam Gaddafi, son of former Libyan leader Muammar al-Gaddafi, ousted in 2011, has also announced his intensions to run for president. After some hesitation, the commander of the Eastern Forces, Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, and Parliament Speaker Aguila Saleh announced the same. Libya’s rival factions have yet to agree on election rules less than weeks before the December 24 polling date set under the UN-backed peace roadmap. The road map called on political entities in Libya to agree on a constitutional framework for the vote and then hold parliamentary and presidential elections on the same date. However, no agreement was reached on the Constitution. The only election law that the Parliament Speaker issued under controversial circumstances set December 24 as the voting date for the first round of the presidential election. According to that law, the second round of that vote and a parliamentary election will follow in January or February; the law also states that officials wishing to run for office must step down three months before Election Day. But the High Council of State, a political entity whose role was enshrined in a 2015 agreement that was part of an earlier peace process, rejected the law.

A struggle has already begun over who has the right to run and who should be removed, either for belonging to the former Gaddafi regime, starting with his son, who announced that he is running for president, or for committing war crimes during the civil war. It will be the task of the Libyan High National Election Commission to make those difficult decisions. Leaders gathered in Paris stressed the need to hold open elections, recognize the results, and ensure a smooth transfer of power to the newly elected authorities and institutions. Unless all competing parties confirm such an agreement, the December 24 election could be the opening of a new chapter in Libya’s civil war, with observers declaring that “we’ve seen it all before.”

Any new Libyan Government will face several complex challenges. They will be crowned by the establishment of a unified and comprehensive military and security system. Participants at the Paris Conference called on the Libyan authorities to continue to engage and make progress through a comprehensive dialogue on these issues, protected from foreign interference, especially given the negotiations in Cairo, which included the Libyan army and security officials.

The next President and Government of Libya will also need to take urgent steps to unify Libya’s Central Bank and ensure transparent governance, equitable resource allocation, and public and social service delivery everywhere in the country. Taking these much-needed steps would pave the way for the unfreezing of Libyan assets in accordance with UN Security Council resolutions. In this regard, Libyan assets are wholly held by Western banks, which use them extensively and receive dividends that will not, of course, be given to Libyans.

Libya and its people have a long and challenging way to go to rebuild their country and raise their economic and social standards to an acceptable level. It is a long term agenda that countries interested in peace in the Mediterranean region are ready to support and extend a helping hand to the Libyan people.

Viktor Mikhin, corresponding member of RANS, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”.

Ever since Libyan Jamahiriya leader Muammar Gaddafi was overthrown and sneakily assassinated by European and American champions of “democracy” in 2011, the country has been mired in unimaginable chaos through the fault of the West. Ten years after externally inspired demonstrations and protests, the oil-rich country has been gripped with political instability, violence, economic chaos, and, since last year, an explosion of the COVID-19 epidemic.

On September 21, the Parliament of the eastern part of Libya passed a vote of no confidence in the Government of National Unity formed earlier this year. The interim body, set up to replace two rival administrations that have long fought each other, should lead the country to national elections scheduled for December 24. So, on the one hand, Libya appears to be moving towards peace and stability. Still, on the other, it risks sliding back into civil war when violent clashes between rival factions return to the capital Tripoli.

Foreign involvement may be the main reason why Libya has not been able to move forward and establish a unified, stable administration. External actors, by sponsoring their preferred side in the conflict, periodically add fuel to the fire.  Dalia Al-Aqidi, Senior Fellow at the Center for Security Policy, Washington, DC, assesses the current situation this way: “In a country like Libya, achieving security and political stability requires unity among various major political players. However, when you have local politicians with foreign agendas and loyalties, it’s hard to rally around one common goal.” Really that says it all.

Many experts rightly believe that Libya has become little more than a playground for competing foreign interests to grab the spoils of war – oil, arms contracts, and strategic influence. “External support from various groups, patrons and clients supported the conflict as well as the war economy of smuggling, corruption, bribery, racketeering, protection, control of critical infrastructures such as airports, seaports and oil terminals,” said Jonathan Weiner, former US special envoy for Libya and current scholar at the Middle East Institute. The only way to replace such a corrupt and fractious system, Wiener believes, is “a single civilian government that divides the spoils in a way that is inclusive and provides something for almost everyone.”

As a result of prolonged political strife and infighting, ordinary Libyans have witnessed a dramatic drop in their living standards and the destruction of critical infrastructure. Earlier this year, the dinar collapsed, and consumer prices instantly skyrocketed. Fuel shortages and power outages have become commonplace. Even clean water is rare in a country that was once one of the richest in Africa and remains the continent’s second-largest oil producer after Nigeria.

“Libya is a damaged society, but not an unhappy one,” said Karim Mezran, director of the North Africa Initiative and resident senior fellow with the Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East at the Atlantic Council.  “The biggest problems are the COVID-19 pandemic and the fact that the country serves as a significant hub for migration of Africans to Southern Europe. Nevertheless, with some stability, Libya is and should be a prosperous country, given the abundance of oil and other natural resources combined with a relatively small population.”

Instead of emerging from the Gaddafi era with greater openness, economic growth, and productive engagement with the international community, Libya is still experiencing lawlessness and institutional collapse, becoming something close to a failed state.  “A decade of violence and unrest, a struggling economy, and the COVID-19 pandemic have compounded the challenges facing everyone living in the country,” Tom Garofalo, the International Rescue Committee’s Country Director for Libya, said in his recent statement. Today, an estimated 1.3 million people require humanitarian assistance – a 40% increase from 2020 alone.

Experts agree that Libya lacks true leadership, a strong politician who could unite the people, politicians, and parties and lead them towards being a prosperous country. Weiner said the UN needs to be “much stronger, firmer, tougher, and more stable” to stabilize the country.  “There have to be consequences when countries say one thing, such as promising to keep the peace and withdraw their troops but do another, like supporting their clients and keeping their mercenaries and military support,” he said.  There is no doubt that significant progress has been made in the past year in resolving the differences in Libya. Nevertheless, many experts on Libya believe that securing the elections is of paramount importance.

The agreement just reached in Geneva by Libyan 5+5 Joint Military Commission on a process for the withdrawal of mercenaries and foreign fighters from the country inspires some optimism. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said the action plan was “a cornerstone in implementing the October 2020 ceasefire agreement,” as he called Libyan and international authorities to act on it. The UN Secretary-General hopes that the deployment of an initial team of United Nations ceasefire monitors will “help set the stage for the successful implementation of the action plan,” said Spokesperson Stéphane Dujarric.

Still, the world hopes that Libya will halt its descent into the abyss of chaos and begin the process of restoration of statehood.

Viktor Mikhin, corresponding member of RANS, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”.

As Libya’s first-ever presidential election is approaching on December 24, the situation in that country is becoming increasingly tense.

On September 21, 89 members of Libya’s unicameral parliament passed a vote of no confidence in the Government of National Unity. However, Mohamed al-Raed, a member of the House of Representatives, later said that in his view, the vote of no confidence was not legitimate, as only 89 votes were cast for the vote of no confidence. In contrast, under the rules in force, a minimum of 120 votes is required for such a decision to be passed. Meanwhile, the Libya Observer pointed out that seven MPs had confirmed that the vote of no confidence had been a “fraud by the Parliament Speaker Aguila Saleh.“

On September 21, Libyan Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh called on the people to confront the parliament, expressing no confidence in the government, and came out to the protesters in Martyrs’ Square in downtown Tripoli.

However, despite the ruling by parliament, Libya’s National Unity Government of Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh will continue to operate until after the December elections, said Parliamentary spokesman Abdullah Blihaq. “The Cabinet will continue to perform its day-to-day duties as the interim government it originally was,“ he said. “Parliament is currently forming a committee to review the work of the cabinet during the previous phase.“

As the advisor to the Libyan Parliament Speaker, Fathi al-Marimi explained, “The continuation of the cabinet as an interim government in the face of a withdrawal of confidence is legal under the internal rules of the House of Representatives. At the same time, some of its powers are reduced, in particular with regard to international agreements, and its work is limited to internal problems.“

Supporters of the Islamists of the international association Muslim Brotherhood (banned in the Russian Federation) from the Supreme State Council (SSC), which performs consultative functions, attempted to use the controversy between the parliament and the Libyan government. They demanded the postponement of the country’s parliamentary and presidential elections scheduled for December. For its part, the House of Representatives Defense and National Security Committee called on the international community to impose sanctions on Khaled al-Mishri, President of the High Council and the Libyan Muslim Brotherhood leader Ali al-Sallabi, accusing the aforementioned individuals of obstructing a peaceful settlement and national referendum. The Committee noted that extremist group representatives and politicians loyal to them increased after adopting the Law on Presidential Elections.

The Muslim Brotherhood’s desire to keep the Turkish contingent and mercenaries on Libyan territory was previously reported, which was confirmed during talks between the President of the High Council and Turkish Minister of National Defense Hulusi Akar in Ankara on September 9. Turkey, for its part, continues to rely on the role of militias in protecting its interests on Libyan territory, seeking to reinvigorate the agreements made in late 2019 with the disbanded Libyan Government of National Accord (GNA). Concerned if the people do not vote for their candidates on December 24, the Muslim Brotherhood and Ankara realize that in this case, they will have to forget about Libya. In order to avoid such a negative outcome, politicians and members of the High Council loyal to them are actively making efforts to preserve the crisis in the country, even going so far as resorting to open threats. For instance, Khalid al-Mishri, Chairman of the High Council of State, had previously threatened to use force if a candidate displeasing the Ikhwans was nominated for the presidency. Meanwhile, the Muslim Brotherhood has hinted at its readiness to switch to armed methods of struggle in the country, including the use of external support. The Muslim Brotherhood had already resorted to such a strategy in 2014, plunging the country into a war called Libya Dawn, occupying the capital Tripoli when the people elected the House of Representatives. One of the most prominent leaders of the operation at the time was Fathi Bashagha, the former Interior Minister in the Fayez Sarraj government supported by Turkey.

Meanwhile, the High National Election Commission of Libya has completed the registration of citizens living abroad for the election, and the formation of candidates for the election has entered an active phase. The commander of the Libyan National Army, Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, has temporarily resigned and intends to run as a candidate in the presidential elections. Army officials said the widely supported Libyan tribal field marshal intends to pursue his objectives, chief among which is “further cleansing the country of terrorist groups.“ According to some regional observers, Haftar’s political ambitions could lead to a new escalation in Libya, up to and including armed confrontation.   The Muslim Brotherhood is especially apprehensive about a possible victory of Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar in the elections and believes they will be ousted from the political scene if he does. But they are also well aware that the Libyan people will not accept their candidates, knowing that the latter belongs to the Muslim Brotherhood. According to estimates by some Libyan observers, to resolve this dilemma, the organization may resort to declaring its general rejection of any party from participating in the elections, therefore attempting to open the door to supporters of the former regime, with whom the Ikhwans hope to reach a tentative agreement. They will support the election campaign as a unified movement, using slogans in favor of reconciliation, fraternity, and rejection of dictatorship. If they win, they will eventually share power in the country.

Against the backdrop of a shaky and uncertain domestic situation in the country, corrupt practices have intensified. For example, in early September, an employee of the National Oil Corporation (NOC) of Libya published documents on the Web confirming the theft of public money, showing that some of the proceeds were criminally transferred to the accounts of European politicians. The published documents include US Ambassador to Libya Richard Norland, former Special Representative of the Secretary-General in Libya and Head of the United Nations Support Mission Stephanie Williams, top officials of the former Lybian Government of National Accord (GNA) Fayez al-Sarraj and Fathi Bashagha. However, the latter two have been previously repeatedly accused of embezzlement and bribery. According to published data, NOC revenues are supposed to go to the country’s treasury. Still, instead, they are shared among Libyan officials and sent to Europe, the Middle East, and the United States.

Valery Kulikov, political expert, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”.

As is well known, under the agreements reached at the Forum of the Libyan Political Dialogue in Tunisia, the first presidential election in the history of Libya will be held on December 24, 2021. However, so far, the development of the situation has followed a pattern similar to that of Afghanistan. There are many groups vying for influence, not necessarily ethnically based, but with different interests. Over the past decades, Libyans have experienced the horrors of the civil war and the consequences of Western intervention, so today they are trying to overcome these consequences and come to a unified existence, even if this process is not welcomed by everyone.

The country still does not have a constitutional basis for the process of electing a president; the power structures of the east and west are still divided, leaving the elections open to question.

Libyan Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh noted that while preparations for the presidential election are important, with no budget in place, the Cabinet is left powerless. In response, members of the House of Representatives condemned the unjustified spending of budget funds amid the deteriorating socioeconomic situation in the state. They noted that the transitional Government of National Unity (GNU) “has become a burden for Libyan citizens due to its excessive costs.” Deputies pointed to the lack of coordination and management that has been required of the GNU since its formation. This, they believe, proves the inability of the Cabinet to manage the state and solve problems with the provision of basic services to the population. In this regard, parliamentarians criticized the statements and actions of Prime Minister Dbeibeh, calling them “irresponsible” and some of his actions threatening the security and civil peace in Libya. In addition, they noticed clear interference in the work of state institutions and encroachment on the authority and efforts of the Joint Military 5+5 Committee. The deputies concluded that all of the above reasons were sufficient to revoke the vote of confidence in the GNU, stating that its work only “widens the gap between Libyans and sows hatred.”

Under these circumstances, the members of the House of Representatives from the Cyrenaica region proposed to withdraw the vote of confidence from the GNU. A statement signed by 29 deputies said that the government led by Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh did not follow the roadmap provided for in the political agreement. The prime minister was also accused of bias against the eastern region.

In his defense, Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh accused the Libyan National Army commanders of blocking the process, although in fact Benghazi is ready for compromises as soon as Tripoli stops cooperating with radicals. There have also been accusations of links between armed formations supported by the GNU and international terrorist organizations.  “There are groups that are involved in smuggling, there are also radical groups. The 99% of regular military personnel in Tripoli do nothing but sit around the house and get their paychecks. Armed groups do not allow them to engage in professional activities, they are not given access to weapons. Behind all the problems in Libya, we believe, are these groups and those who control them from the Muslim Brotherhood (banned in Russia) and a number of states, including Turkey and Qatar,” said Khaled Mahjoub, head of the Libyan National Army Morale Maintenance Directorate.

However, it is not only radical groups that hinder the unification of the Libyan National Army and militias, which are subordinate to Tripoli. Observers point out that there is too much Turkish influence in the west of the country. Ankara does not intend to withdraw its contingent and pro-Turkish radicals from Libya, and the withdrawal of foreign troops is one of the main conditions of the unification process.

Continuing its efforts to hold ground in western Libya, Turkey welcomed the appointment of Salah al-Namroush, former defense minister of the disbanded Government of National Accord (GNA), as head of the new West Coast Military District. Ankara, according to Africa Intelligence, is counting on the support of the general to strengthen its position in the region, especially taking into account the fact that the Al-Watiya base under the control of the Turkish military is located in the territory under his jurisdiction. Salah al-Namroush comes from the city of al-Zawiyah and is close to the chairman of the Supreme Council of State (SCS), Khaled al-Mishri, as well as the deputy head of the Presidential Council, Abdullah al-Lafi. The publication believes that he could be a valuable ally for Ankara as its relations with Tripoli continue to deteriorate.

Recall that in mid-August the joint military 5+5 committee once again called on Turkey to withdraw its troops from Libya, pointing to the illegality of their presence in the west of the country. Ankara continues to insist on the legitimacy of the military presence, citing a memorandum of understanding with the former GNA, officially suspended in accordance with the Geneva Treaty of 2020, which provides for a peaceful solution to the situation in Libya and the return of all foreign troops to their homeland. Under these circumstances, according to Africa Intelligence, it is possible that Turkey intends to use Salah al-Namroush to make a new agreement with the Transitional Government of National Unity headed by Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh, with his help, against the background of the approaching presidential and parliamentary elections scheduled for December 24.

In the face of recent intensified internal strife and political struggle, this North African country intends to convene an international conference involving the UN and several neighboring countries in support of peace and security in Libya, although the exact date and venue have not yet been specified. According to a statement from the Libyan Foreign Ministry, the summit will focus on the initiative for stability in the region, launched by the Government of National Unity in June 2021, and the participants will also discuss “the creation of practical mechanisms for the implementation of the provisions of the first and second Berlin conferences.”

To prepare for the conference, GNU Foreign Minister Najla Mangoush met with UN Secretary General’s Special Envoy to Libya Jan Kubiš on August 23. The parties emphasized the need to move forward with the implementation of the results of the Political Dialogue Forum and to work in support of the Joint Military Committee 5+5 efforts to strengthen the ceasefire and unify the defense establishment. They also discussed preparations for general elections and the measures taken by the government in this regard.

Najla Mangoush paid an official visit to Moscow on August 19, thanking the Russian leadership for its consistent efforts to promote the political process in this North African country. During a joint press conference after a meeting in Moscow with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, Mangoush stressed Moscow’s readiness to assist in the withdrawal of foreign armed units from the territory of an African state and the unification of its power structures. Foreign forces and mercenaries must necessarily be withdrawn from Libya, said Foreign Minister Mangoush, stressing that such decisions should not lead to “a repetition of negative lessons of some of our neighbors,” that is, “an ill-conceived withdrawal of troops and rolling the country into chaos” should not be allowed. According to the head of the Libyan Foreign Ministry, the withdrawal of foreign forces from the republic should be “gradual and synchronous.”

Russian Minister Lavrov also outlined his vision of the situation in Libya: “When the hostilities were still raging, one side, the government in Tripoli, requested military assistance in one part of the region. The second, no less legitimate party, the parliament in Tobruk, requested military assistance from other sources. It was because of the balance of military efforts on the ground, including the efforts of the parties themselves and those who assisted them, that it was possible to reach a cease-fire.” Now, according to the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry, the withdrawal of troops must be carried out in such a way that at no stage would any party gain an advantage. Sergey Lavrov emphasized: “That’s what’s important, and not the attempts to sidetrack the discussion into legitimacy debates.” In summary, Russia is ready to fully support the withdrawal of foreign forces from Libya, but all forces must do so simultaneously and with the current situation in mind. No one wants a repeat of the chaos of Afghanistan.

Valery Kulikov, political expert, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”.