“Ukraine: the price of the American-European deception,” “A lesson for the Ukrainian people in the school of the West.” These and similar headlines have flooded the Middle Eastern media and social media in the wake of the Russian military operation in Ukraine.  One of the main topics is the reasons and background for this move and its perception in the Arab region at various levels.

Most Arab countries have taken a low-key stance on the crisis in Ukraine, objecting in principle to military solutions, according to the influential pan-Arab website Elaf. At the same time, they called for dialogue, diplomacy and negotiation to prevail among all parties to reach a settlement.

There is now a debate about the motives behind Moscow’s moves in Ukraine. A number of Arab analysts are sympathetic to Russia’s circumstances, its sensitivities and psychological mindset in the name of defending its vital interests.

They also cite the history of Moscow’s relations with the West. The anti-Russian phobia it now fosters reminds Russia of the bitter experiences of the past, of invasions from its west by Napoleon and later Hitler. Western Europe’s enmity towards Russia is nothing new; it is primarily linked to historical, strategic, civilizational factors rather than political ones, including a belief in its superiority.  This forces the Kremlin to act to shield itself from any surprises.

By supporting and facilitating the rise to power of loyalists in Ukraine in 2014, the West has built a fence in front of Russia. It encouraged and pushed the Ukrainian leadership to a conflict with Russia. In the Soviet era, the US sent Stingers to Afghanistan to fight Soviet troops, the same is happening now with supplies of Javelin anti-tank systems to Ukraine.

“Ukraine has shown that it is not acting as a sovereign state. If it were, it would not have joined a foreign party that is supplying it with weapons and targeting it against its huge neighbor, Russia,” concludes the Algerian publication. “On the contrary, it would become a strategic ally of Moscow and would greatly benefit from its vast natural resources and technology for its development”.

A number of Arab authors agree that Volodymyr Zelenski, a man far removed from the great corridors of power and from world politics with all its subtleties, was deceived. He has apparently not realized that the Western powers traditionally do not present anything for free to their clients. His country, seduced by the call to take a stand against Russia, has become a pawn in the West’s machinations.

“It is clear,” stresses the London-based newspaper al-Arab, “that Ukraine has become a victim of its president’s policies. Ukraine is a small country and is not capable of playing the game in the great power club. It is doomed by terms of history and geography to be closer to Russia than to the West. Of course, it is correct to say that it is an independent and sovereign state, but within those two conditions outlined above. There is no need to squeeze it into Moscow’s orbit, but it must not become a tool that would damage Russia”.

According to some commentators, the Americans are well aware that Kiev’s accession to NATO would do great damage to Russia in moral, psychological, military and other respects. In military respect, this entails the deployment of state-of-the-art air defense and medium-range missiles, including nuclear and other equipment close to Russia’s borders.

Such a scenario, according to local observers, is unacceptable not only for Russia but also for any other sovereign country. Saudi newspaper Okaz believes that the logic of the Russian leadership and its concerns about its national security “do not appear to be something exceptional, but are legitimate and recognized by international and diplomatic law”.

According to a Libyan author, basic common sense and a sense of self-preservation demand action in opposition to Ukraine joining NATO, plans to place military bases under Russia’s nose.

Many commentators these days recall the twists and turns of the Cuban crisis, when the US, fearing the deployment of Soviet missiles in Cuba, close to its borders, brought the world to the brink of nuclear war.   Today, few authors do not mention the well-known facts of US military intervention in faraway sovereign countries, especially Iraq and Libya.

The Arabs recall that back in the day Ukraine took part in the occupation of Iraq after 2003, its takeover by the US, and was involved in military operations that resulted in the deaths of Iraqi civilians.

Regarding the Russian operation and developments in Ukraine, an Emirati author states that the limits of Washington’s power and might are looming around the world.  Washington’s hegemony faces various challenges and crises on the world stage. In addition, the rapid growth of China and the impact of the coronavirus pandemic must be borne in mind. There is a feverish race to rivalry in global society to fill the vacuum that is created by the US role reversal.

Yuri Zinin, a senior researcher at the Center for Middle Eastern Studies, Institute of International Studies of the Moscow State Institute for International Relations, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”.

Hype in the West regarding Russia’s plans to seize Kyiv and its other “schemes” garnered response and comments in the Middle Eastern political circles and media. Among these the US-driven propaganda narratives regarding Moscow’s alleged intent to use its gas as a geopolitical weapon and about the gas stranglehold that Russia has allegededly put on Europe’s neck is surrounded by lively debates.

In this regard, a number of Arab commentators are reminiscing about the “freedom gas” slogan. And indeed, back in the day, US president Donald Trump touted American liquefied gas that was supposed to free the Old World from dependence on Russia.

As Al-Arabiya reports, following these plans, in January the US accounted for 45% of LNG supplies arriving in Europe from outside (almost 12 billion cubic meters). Washington wants to sideline the Russian gas as it seeks alternative gas supply sources.

Another incentive derives from the mounting pressure on the US administration in terms of demands to cut exports of this commodity in order to offset the soaring prices at the domestic market. For that reason, the US is seeking another gas sources, including in the Middle East, a region that accounts for 15% of natural gas production globally.

As for the positions of Arab producers, as the Saudi author reports, compared to Russia that covers 40% of gas consumption in Europe, supplies from Algeria account just for 8%, while Qatar stands for 5%, which is followed by Libya. The way the local gas exporters react to this development can be estimated by the Middle Eastern media’s feedback.

According to Libyan Oil and Gas Minister Mohamed Aoun, his country is impotent to influence the gas crisis in Europe in terms of attenuating its sufferings. The Libyan gas that was back in the day flowing to Europe via Greenstream pipeline connecting Libya and Italy is now used only for supporting local thermal power plants.

For now, Algeria will not be able to replace Russian gas in case of shortages due to a simple reason: a vast difference in production volumes of the two countries. Objectively speaking, Algeria lacks resources for this purpose, says a former responsible head of the Algerian company SONATRACH.

Qatar is the second largest LNG exporter globally, that is why Washington bets big on Doha to sideline Russia in the European gas market.

Some researchers argue about the chances of Qatari gas becoming an alternative to the Russian fuel, citing Doha’s ambitious plans to significantly step up its LNG production and export capacities in the coming years.  Other Middle Eastern experts, however, have voiced caution in this regard.

75% of Qatari LNG is exported to Asian countries: Japan, South Korea, etc. 90% of deliveries are long-term contracts. Last year, in particular, China and Qatar signed the largest contract of such sort.  This means that only a tiny fraction of Qatari gas is sold on the spot market.

According to a BCS Global Market analyst, as cited by the Arab source, it is necessary to transfer half of LNG consumed by Asia to Europe to replace Gazprom. Qatar’s Energy Minister Saad Al-Kaabi pointed out that Doha considered its gas contracts to be “sacred” while fulfillment of contractual obligations is the nation’s priority.

Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani, Qatar’s foreign minister, said that Qatar will not “be a part of some kind of conflict and political polarization.” As for the energy competition, it is open while Qatar intends to compete with Russia, the US and other producers.

Besides, Qatar demands to refrain from reselling the gas it supplies, a pattern of behavior some European countries are engaged in, in order to transfer the fuel to Asian countries with excess profit in mind.

At the same time, as the Arab outlet reports, generally speaking, the Russian pipeline gas has an edge over the Qatari fuel. This method is more convenient and cost-effective since the pipeline gas does not require liquefaction, long-distance sea transportation and expensive-to-run on-shore equipment for accepting and storing fuel.

Analysts also urge to take into account Europe’s push to rely more heavily on gas since the green energy sector plans to stop using coal in the upcoming decades.  Moreover, gas consumption in the Middle East is increasing by 4.6% annually, which will be an understandable cause for cutting exports from this region.

In recent years, Washington has been consumed with an idea to become a global energy security hegemon, pushing back against Europe’s energy independence and its ties with Russia, especially in the gas industry. Under the last US administration Washington was dead set on finding an alternative to the Russian gas, but failed miserably.

The Egyptian political scientist assumes that geostrategic reality predetermines imminent economic bilateral tying of Russia and Europe. In recent years, even when Europe slapped sanctions on Russia, they did not affect the gas sector.

For Europe ditching of the Russian gas will prove problematic since such a move would require a lot of time and efforts for construction of brand-new infrastructure for accepting, processing and distributing LNG among the consumers. For Russia, such backpedaling (a matter Western experts like to drone on) would be suicidal.

More and more Middle Eastern analysts agree that restless authors’ hysteria about the Russian invasion and occupation of Ukraine reached its peak.

The Emirati outlet concludes Russia is determined to avoid the war that would disembowel it and expose it in the eyes of the world community as a violator of international legal norms…

But, as the metaphor goes, if a knife is put to Russia’s throat, then it will certainly resort to some military measures to shield itself in the long run and protect its Eastern borders from Western encroachment. Despite a threat of severe sanctions and other risks, moving forward, this nation has much more to gain than it stands to lose.

Yuri Zinin, a senior researcher at the Center for Middle Eastern Studies, Institute of International Studies of the Moscow State Institute for International Relations, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”.

“Do the Russians want war?” This is the type of headlines in Middle Eastern media reports on the recent Western-led information campaign dealing with the alleged military threat posed by Russia. The mosaic of approaches and opinions is wide-ranging. Some commentators take a light-hearted view of the events and adopt theses of Western propagandists, muddled with false assertions and conclusions.

Others, and their number is increasing, are more skeptical about the accusation campaign launched against Moscow and endeavor to explain the background to what is happening on the basis of objective factors.

A number of authors have been drawing attention in particular to the deep and close ethnic, economic and cultural ties linking Russia and Ukraine and their peoples for centuries. They now determine the mutual interest and reciprocal attraction of both sides, according to the Emirati newspaper Al Khaleej. It laments that the mutual enmity between the West and Russia is only escalating tensions and worsening the overall atmosphere of international relations. This could give new impetus to the Cold War and deepen the polarization of the world. What is needed are sensible and wise approaches to creatively resolve the crisis that would preserve peace, allay Russia’s apprehensions and give it the guarantees it needs to ensure its national security and the aspirations of peoples for independence.

A number of observers tend to see Washington as being behind the stirring up of the crisis and tensions between Russia and Ukraine. The Lebanese author recalls that in the past, the US prepared and declared wars under the camouflage of all sorts of attractive moral pretexts to conceal their aggressive nature. For example, the reason for the war in Afghanistan was to “protect peace” from the dangers of terrorist organizations. Intervention in Iraq was justified by the argument that it was necessary to “save the world” from weapons of mass destruction.

As for Russia, Washington’s plans to contain and embrace it also need some kind of attractive wrapper. The slogan of “helping the democratic US administration to Ukraine” in the face of a Russian “invasion”, which has become a leitmotif in the Western media, is tossed in here. But the Arabs, according to the author, are well aware that NATO’s expansion eastward began long ago, when there was no talk of a Russian “takeover of Ukraine”.

A number of Arab commentators dismiss Western media manipulation of the eastern neighbor’s malign intentions towards Ukraine.

Iraqi political scientist, Dr. S.A. Kader Mustafa, who was educated in Ukraine in the 1980s, responds to them in his article. Many friends and relatives he speaks to on the phone, whether in Odessa, Kyiv, Kharkiv or Kryvyi Rih, confirm: Ukrainian citizens understand that the US, NATO are behind the escalation of this information surge and are creating problems between Moscow and Kyiv. Life goes on as normal, his interlocutors admit.

The Middle Eastern media draws attention to Europe’s position in the current confrontational situation with Russia. Al Jazeera points out that after two decades in Afghanistan, which ended in failure, the US is reviving the Western alliance, returning it to its traditional theatre of operations under the pretext of demanding a new Cold War.

Some 20 years ago, Germany and France showed their sufficient courage to oppose the US takeover and occupation of Iraq in 2003, which turned out to be disastrous not only for Iraq and the entire Near and Middle East, but also for the US and Europe itself.  Now is the time to take a similar attitude and show the world and the US the way towards a diplomatic solution to this crisis. Indeed, the European powers could suspend escalation for the worse if they veto NATO’s expansion eastward and that would be a very good thing, says the channel.

According to other authors, dragging European countries into all sorts of sanctions will hurt Europeans themselves. They have extensive economic ties with Moscow, particularly in energy imports.

Restrictions of all kinds, in particular the promoted withdrawal of the Russian Federation from the Swift system, will hurt primarily the interests of Europe, especially against the background of the ongoing pandemic. This includes higher prices for gas and heating, other goods, higher inflation, etc.

The West probably does not realize that if it continues to drive Moscow into a corner, it will push Russia towards greater cooperation with the PRC, India and the South. This, according to the Moroccan expert, could end up leading to new military alliances with the PRC, and possibly with India, in the future.

Academician Yevgeny Primakov called this “the strategic triangle” a quarter of a century ago.

Arab media emphasize that the joint statement the Russian Federation and the PRC issued on February 4, 2022 means that the world is on the way to large-scale change. This is highlighted in particular by the Lebanese newspaper.

Yuri Zinin, a senior researcher at the Center for Middle Eastern Studies, Institute of International Studies of the Moscow State Institute for International Relations, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”.

Russia recently took part in the Sharjah International Book Fair, the largest one in UAE. The exposition featured books published in the Russian Federation, which included Arabic. Russian representatives held talks with the Emiratis to launch a major joint project, translating and publishing a series of Russian classical and modern literature into Arabic.

There was considerable interest shown. Taleb Alrefai, a Kuwaiti writer, honored with the SIBF 2021 ‘Cultural Personality of the Year,’ said that after reading the novel Mother by Maxim Gorky, he discovered a new world of people looking into the future. This discovery prompted him to get acquainted with the works of other Russian luminaries and inspired him to become a writer.

It’s worth noting that the first masterpieces of Russian literature translated into their native language for the Arabs appeared in the 19th century. The Russian literature was translated by their compatriots, who later worked at the Universities of the Russian Empire.

The Russian literary word actively penetrated the Arab region from the middle of the twentieth century as the USSR developed multifaceted relations and ties with independent states. The well-known state publishing houses at that time were Progress, Raduga, Mir, and Nauka, which published hundreds of works by Russian writers and authors from the national republics in Arabic.

A galaxy of talented translators, graduates of Soviet Universities, and citizens of Arab countries have grown up. Thanks to their efforts, the local reader gained access to the rich and varied heritage of the Russian classics. Many prominent writers and critics of the region contributed to the popularization of their work. For example, each of half a dozen writers and novelists of Iraq who lived in the twentieth century has translated into his native language works by Tolstoy, Dostoevsky, Turgenev, Gogol, Chekhov, Gorky, and other prominent authors from Russian or other foreign languages.

The Government Inspector, a play by Nikolai Gogol, was staged in almost all Arab countries on a professional or amateur level.

Russian drama significantly influenced the birth and formation of the Syrian theater. According to Tamer Al-Arbid, a theater figure of the Syrian Arab Republic, the texts and plots entered the national repertoire of the country, becoming popular with the audience. After all, the heroes of the plays of the classics are ordinary people. Their problems and aspirations, in contrast to the propagated Western values, resonate with modern Syrians.

Several Egyptian films were shot based on scripts inspired by the works of Russian writers,  such as Sonya and The Madman, a film based on the novel Crime and Punishment, Brothers-Enemies, created under the influence of The Brothers Karamazov, River of Love, an adaptation of the novel Anna Karenina, etc.

Today, in a multipolar and global world, the country’s image is associated with economic indicators and the level of culture and literature. Western countries are actively promoting the publication of their authors and the teaching of languages ​​in the Third World. For these purposes, significant funds are spent through media channels, social networks, and the organization of various exhibitions.

The struggle for cultural influence in the region is increasingly acquiring political overtones. The years following the collapse of the Soviet Union have shown that translations of books by Russian writers cannot make their way into the book markets of the Arab world without government support. Therefore, the Institute for Literary Translation, Moscow, established to support Russian literal translations, is relevant, as it assists Arab publishers in producing works by Russian authors.

The traditions of Russian-Arab cultural and literary interaction, which are essential for mutual perception and dialogue between Russia and the Arab countries, continue to live on. In Egypt, two books of memoirs of Fyodor Dostoevsky’s contemporaries were recently published on the occasion of the 200th anniversary of the great writer’s birth.  Previously, the Center for Strategic Studies in Cairo held a seminar on the influence of a writer on the local literary community.

The Egyptian-Russian Foundation for Culture and Science, which has existed since 2015, has published a series of translations of Russian masters and contemporary writers. Among them are the works by Anton Chekhov, the Russian poetry collection. It presents almost 30 authors, from Zhukovsky to Yevtushenko and Okudzhava, collected poems, previously translated and new ones.

The Association of Egyptian Researchers, whose goal is to popularize modern knowledge and world culture, lists two dozen books by Russian authors who “contributed to the treasury of world literature, which everyone ought to read.”

Idriss Magliani, a Moroccan poet and translator, has been an honorary member of the Union of Writers of Russia since 2016 for his services in the translation and popularization of Russian authors. Idriss Magliani translated Pasternak, Pushkin, Yevtushenko, and other authors into Arabic. Tales by Alexander Pushkin and Pavel Bazhov, translated, are now being prepared for publication in the Emirates.

So the Russian literary word still finds its fans and judges in different parts of the Arab world.

Yury Zinin, a senior researcher at the Center for Middle Eastern Studies of Moscow State Institute of International Relations (University) of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”.

The current turbulence in the European gas market has attracted the attention of the Arabs closely watching the gas price situation. After all, the Arab oil-producing countries account for 56% of oil reserves and almost 27% of natural gas globally. In 2020, according to local data, they produced 28% of oil and 15% of natural gas on the planet, and the revenues they generate in the process constitute the primary source of their budgets and development.

In its recent statement, the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC) voiced the belief that the crisis in Europe is fraught with a threat to the stability of the entire global gas market, especially on the eve of winter. The organization stressed that it was monitoring the unprecedented increase in the gas prices on the continent.

The causes of the crisis are discussed in the media and social networks of the Middle East. Some commenters reference Western media and experts who blame it on Russia’s desire for supremacy in the energy field in the name of its geostrategic and political goals. At the same time, a military vocabulary such as “gas war, aggression, weapons,” etc., is used.

Such speculations muddy the situation for those authors who approach the situation more objectively, viewing it as a manifestation of the market situation. They explain the surge in prices mainly by the fact the European economy has been gradually recovering from the recession caused by the coronavirus pandemic. As a result, several industries and services have been closed, their activities reduced. The incipient recovery has raised the energy bills, as the volumes of production and delivery remained the same. In addition, the demand for gas has increased in Asia as well.

Referring to the discussion of who is to blame for the rise in gas prices in Europe, the authors cite data that reserves of liquefied gas in storage facilities have been the smallest in the last ten years. This rise is due to a 39% reduction in the number of contracts awarded this year compared to a year ago, meaning that gas and energy companies share responsibility for the decline in supply on the market.

There is no evidence that Gazprom decided to cut its supplies via Nord Stream 1. It is not in Russia’s interest to impose sanctions against itself. Especially as Russia needs income from the export of these products. It will increase after Nord Stream 2, the construction of which has been completed, as stated by Al-Quds-Al-Arabi. Meanwhile, European political groups, together with the United States, set on a cold war against Russia and China, are trying to use any weapon to obstruct the launch of Nord Stream 2.

The current crisis in the world market is an artificial crisis caused by the desire to restrict gas supplies from Russia as part of the new Cold War.

By delaying its start-up, Europe is using natural gas as a political weapon against itself. The crisis in the gas sector is oppressing the economies of all states, hitting their indicators, spurring inflation, etc.

According to the Head of the Quorum Centre for Strategic Studies, Tariq Al-Rifai, no country would benefit from the current twists and turns in the gas market, including Russia. Qatar Energy Minister Saad Al-Kaabi said his country is not rejoicing over the rise in gas prices. Instead of it resembling a swing that soars up and down, it is better to see the gas price as reasonably balanced.

At the same time, many Arab experts note Russia’s interest in supplying gas under long-term contracts, which helps stabilize the market.  According to OAPEC data, the European market prefers to rely on short-term deals on the spot market for 80% of its LNG purchases.

The European market has followed this line for more than ten years, exposing consumers to price fluctuations. Arab producers and liquefied gas suppliers are mainly focused on long-term contracts linked to Brent oil prices. They feel that it guarantees stability in the markets and puts a barrier in the way of sharp price fluctuations.

The current crisis has demonstrated that efforts to generate alternative energy to replace natural gas, oil, and coal entirely are not enough to meet the world’s demands, Arab experts agree.  Moreover, the measures of crisis-hit governments to reduce taxes and introduce various benefits for oil and gas producers will only pull away some of the investment needed to develop alternative sources. So betting on these sources in the medium and long term is not justified.

When Europe fears a gas shortage, “Russia is throwing it a lifeline by announcing that Nord Stream 2 will soon become operational. It seems that the Russian gas pipeline will be the only hope in solving the gas crisis strangling the Old World,” notes the Emirati portal Ain Al-Ahbariyya.

Yuri Zinin, a senior researcher at the Center for Middle Eastern Studies, Institute of International Studies of the Moscow State Institute for International Relations, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”.

After the complete evacuation of the US and NATO military from Afghanistan, the possibility of a return of Al-Qaeda (a terrorist group banned in Russia) is causing concern. Al Qaeda carried out the September 11, 2001 attacks in the United States, and they are now receiving a safe haven in Afghanistan, as it did before the tragedy. Taliban morale is now higher than ever before in light of the US defeat and the mass of weapons left behind by the Yankees. These words of an article in the Emirati newspaper Al-Ittihad, dedicated to the 20th anniversary of the Western military contingent’s stay here, reflect the Arab media’s concern against the backdrop of recent heated events in Afghanistan.

The Saudi newspaper sums up the reaction to the Taliban’s arrival as three things. The first is about the success of the Taliban and the American withdrawal, reflecting the failure of the US as a great power.  The second highlights the attitudes of US allies toward their ability to deliver on their promises. The third is related to the effect of the establishment of Taliban power on the surrounding countries and region.

The chorus of reactions includes opinions that it is a triumph of resistance to the Americans and a victory for Islam in general. In contrast to such views, others recall the nature of the Taliban, which has become a natural extension of the alliance of jihadist, obscurantist forces in Afghanistan.

Since the late 1970s, they have been fostered and financed by the US and the West, plus the Gulf states have not been stingy with huge funds. All this in the name of overthrowing the previous regime and expelling the USSR from Afghanistan. The Taliban (banned in the Russian Federation) and Al-Qaeda emerged from the bowels of this conflict.

In the end, the events boomeranged upon the US and its allies. The 9/11 terrorist attack in the United States was a pretext for Yankee intervention in Afghanistan and war with the Taliban.

These historical facts come to mind now, according to the Saudi author.  In the events of the 80s in Afghanistan, the Western camp wanted to fight communism at the hands of Muslims. The outcome became devastating when some people went to jihad and then returned home with their heads full of ideas of terrorism, from which the kingdom suffered greatly. These are the fruits of Afghanistan.  Therefore, the peripeteia of the Taliban, their return should not be of concern to Saudi Arabia.

Among the disbelievers of the Taliban’s victory are those who call it a give-and-take deal between Washington and the Taliban. After this deal with America, one wonders why so many thousands of Afghans want to flee their homeland because they clearly do not believe in their safety.

There have been warnings that a new Afghanistan is being molded by an organization notorious for violence in the past. In just a few days, it has become a state – the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan – capable of “nightmarizing” its neighbors and the rest of the world, especially if it ends up being a haven or an incubator for a variety of terrorists.

Some analysts say that the Taliban’s religious ideology and their approach to building an emirate of Muslims has not changed. A mullah who carries the title of Amir al-Mu’minin, “Commander of the Faithful”, has no power to disrupt this order, which has nothing to do with democracy and modern civil society.

The Taliban will continue to provide a safe haven for Al-Qaeda. The connection between them goes beyond the purely ideological framework and is often reinforced by blood and blood relations: marriages and the creation of mixed families.  The Taliban will remain an umbrella for Al-Qaeda after their “victory,” which will inspire other pro-jihadist Islamic communities.

Such a hasty withdrawal by the US and NATO was met with wariness in the Arab world. According to Palestinian publicist K. Nasir, Washington, which has thrown its crucial allies to the mercy of fate in Afghanistan and forgotten its slogans of support for democracy and human rights, will inevitably abandon its Arab proteges as well.

Several commentators in the Middle East media agree with him. American policy in Afghanistan epitomizes their message to their allies and has raised many questions about what fate awaits them. In fact, US military interventions abroad have most often ended in strategic failure. Washington has turned its back on its allies and abandoned them, as it did to Iranian Shah Reza Pahlavi in 1978, the former “American gendarme” in the Gulf, notes a Kuwaiti newspaper.

According to analysts in the Middle East, the course of events may turn into unexpected twists and turns, shifting positions of certain players with unpredictable consequences. The headlines of their articles show this: “Do Arabs understand the American lesson in Afghanistan?”, “Lessons from American and NATO defeat in Afghanistan,” etc.

They reflect the views of local experts who believe it is relevant for the authorities to diversify engagement and diplomacy with other powers, not just with the US.

Yuri Zinin, a senior researcher at the Center for Middle Eastern Studies, Institute of International Studies of the Moscow State Institute for International Relations, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”.

]]> https://journal-neo.org/2021/09/09/middle-east-and-the-shadow-of-events-in-afghanistan/feed/ 0 https://journal-neo.org/2021/08/22/the-crisis-the-pandemic-and-the-realities-of-tunisia/ https://journal-neo.org/2021/08/22/the-crisis-the-pandemic-and-the-realities-of-tunisia/#comments Sun, 22 Aug 2021 07:08:53 +0000 https://journal-neo.org/?p=162579

After its president, Kais Saied, ousted the prime minister, dissolved parliament for a month, and stripped deputies of their immunity, the situation in Tunisia remains a top story in the media landscape of the country and the region.

These decisions were announced against the backdrop of public protests on July 25, as the population at large remains dissatisfied with the socio-economic hardships and the incapability of those at the top in the fight against the Covid pandemic.  Tunisia has one of the highest death rates because of coronavirus in the world.

The head of state’s emergency measures were taken, as he stated, under Article 80 of the constitution.  Some see these steps as “correcting the course of the revolution” (referring to the 2011 Jasmine Revolution), while others qualify them as a “coup” directed “against the revolution and the constitution.” In this vein spoke the speaker of the temporarily frozen Tunisian parliament, the leader of Ennahda Movement, an Islamist Democratic Party, Rachid al-Ghannouchi.

The power crisis was triggered by disagreements and conflicts between the president, parliament, and the government.  The master of Carthage palace (President Kais Saied’s residence) repeatedly criticized MPs for actions that caused conflicts between the various parliamentary blocs and contributed to the chaos.

At the same time, many experts blame the Islamist Ennahda Movement for social dislocation, deteriorating security, amateurish governance, etc. It has been the leading force, in fact, in all of the ten governments that have existed since 2011. In the first multi-party elections to the National Constituent Assembly (NCA), the organization won the most seats, almost 42%. But in subsequent parliamentary elections, it kept losing them: in 2014 to 28%, and in 2019 to 25%. Nevertheless, Ennahda remains the largest party in the current parliament.

The Islamists are in a mosaic society where there remains the significant influence of archaic social relations and lifestyles as well as hallowed conservative traditions.

The current crisis highlights the question of the compatibility of democracy with the values of a Muslim country.  Several commentators point out that attention should be paid to the realities of the society, the solution of urgent problems, moving away from loud statements and pompous rhetoric. People are fed up with politics and ideology and the struggle within the party community over the past ten years, concludes a local analyst. There are 209 registered parties in the country.

Despite being an instrument of activity, democracy in their hands has become a fruitless game. They used it to advance their narrow interests. Ennahda was at the forefront. The product it tried to market to its consumers over the years was an ideology and nothing more.

Today, according to the weekly Realites, many Tunisians were relieved after the president’s measures highlighted the “historical bankruptcy of Ennahda and its leader.”  87% of Tunisians supported the head of state, according to a poll conducted by le Emhrod Consulting at the end of July this year.

The media are now covering the president’s activities, as he is recruiting new personnel at various levels to eliminate “corrupt officials,” combating the high cost of essential consumer goods, and strengthening measures to counteract the coronavirus.

Some notice that new appointments are taken from employees who are at least 60 years old. Most of them had careers under the previous system before 2011. Which begs the question of whether they will be able to readjust quickly in light of the aspirations of the disgruntled masses who are hungry for change.

To get out of the situation, it is recommended that the public and private sectors develop equally. The top rulers after the revolution were betting on the public sector, seeking to pump it full of money so that it would absorb as many of the unemployed as possible. But this bet placed a burden on the budget and increased dependence on foreign injections. Several experts demand a clear roadmap of reforms from the president.

In recent days, there seems to have been hints from Ennahda of a certain softening of its stance on the president’s demarche, as evidenced by the creation of an internal interim committee to deal with the current political crisis.

It is a well-known fact that the Arab Spring began in Tunisia: a wave of demonstrations toppled the former regime there. Tunisia, unlike the rest of the Arab states, managed to get away with few losses.

Commentators note with satisfaction that the president puts “the horse of the economy ahead of the political cart” in the interests of the Tunisians’ right to a decent life and a piece of bread. This university professor, a self-nominee, did not represent any party or organization and was elected two years ago by citizens who had lost faith in the politics of parties and elites. Tunisians’ expectations for improvement in all areas are immeasurably high.

Whether his experience will be successful and whether the country will find its key to solving problems without violence or other overreaches, only time will tell.

Yuri Zinin, a senior researcher at the Center for Middle Eastern Studies, Institute of International Studies of the Moscow State Institute for International Relations, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”.

The hasty withdrawal of the US and its allies from Afghanistan, its impact on the neighboring and Middle Eastern states, and the possible scenarios of the situation are being vigorously commented on by the media in the Arab world.

Most authors call this move a failure of Washington’s policy. According to the South Al-Iraq website, the US has brought nothing but chaos, political, economic instability to this country over the past 20 years.

When America leaves Afghanistan, whoever takes its place and takes power in the country will undoubtedly be the Taliban (banned in the Russian Federation). It can play a crucial role in relations with countries such as China and the Russian Federation. The Taliban is unlikely to become a quiet and good neighbor to Iran, which considers it an opponent of the Shiite minorities living inside and outside Afghanistan.

The movement could quickly flip and replace its patrons, as it did with Pakistan, who took part in its birth and creation, creating problems for Russia as well as the former Soviet republics, now independent states of Central Asia.

Many analysts see Washington’s actions to discourage local players and add more confusion to Afghan affairs. It’s about upsetting the balance of power, shuffling the players’ cards on the political scene, understandably in the name of American gains.

According to Asharq Al-Awsat, each of these countries, India, Iran, China, Pakistan, and Russia, are close to Afghanistan and have their political interests. They can overlap, and they can also collide, forming a very complex spectrum of relations between them in the region. On the one hand, they fear the penetration of the Taliban’s influence, its ideas pulsating with motions of extremism into the surrounding region. On the other hand, the aspirations of these figures are multidirectional due to the geopolitical competition in the Afghan field.

As for India, commentators estimate that over the years, it has sought to maintain good relations with the Kabul government, participating in the development of life in Afghanistan, contributing to education, irrigation, and electricity production. Public opinion in Afghanistan is favorably disposed toward cooperation with India as a major power and a force that can provide it with some assistance.  India has recently opened channels of communication with the Taliban and supported inter-Afghan negotiations in Qatar.

In the socio-political discourse of the Middle East region, one can observe that Afghanistan’s neighbors are now closely monitoring the situation, taking into account the shifts in the positions of the opposing sides in the country.  Publicists have noticed an increased focus on the Taliban and their attempt to build some bridges with them. In turn, they are sending signals to the community denying intent to inflame tensions in the region and have therefore sent delegations to Russia, China, and Iran. Beijing has hinted that it will play a significant role after the Americans leave.

Commenting on the Taliban’s military onslaught in recent weeks, UAE newspaper Al Khaleej Times believes that Afghanistan risks going back to the past and experiencing a new rendition of civil war.  According to the authors, the unpredictable developments with possible spikes in violence threaten challenges for the Russian Federation, its allies, the countries of the Middle East, especially the Arab countries.

They have breathed a sigh of relief after the attack on the Muslim Brotherhood (a formation banned in the Russian Federation) and other terrorist organizations. The latter will find a safe haven with the Taliban in the event of a revival of their activities. This is especially true of al-Qaeda (a terrorist group banned in the Russian Federation) linked to the Taliban by powerful historical threads and ideological commonalities. The hegemony of the Taliban in power in Afghanistan is fraught with the rise of various fundamentalist tendencies and support for extremism in the region.

Media circles are in favor of international efforts to curb regional threats emanating from Afghanistan.  Against this background, writes the Iraqi edition, the Arabs should be concerned about developments there, to be ready for unexpected turns and to fight back, to strengthen the ranks of friends or possible allies.

Yuri Zinin, a senior researcher at the Center for Middle Eastern Studies, Institute of International Studies of the Moscow State Institute for International Relations, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”.

The relationship between the United States and Russia has been a topic of discussions among Middle Eastern experts and in media outlets in light of Washington’s recent disruptive actions. After the telephone conversation between Vladimir Putin and Joe Biden, tensions between the two leaders were expected to ease but these hopes were dashed when instead they intensified after the United States imposed new sanctions against Russia. And according to an opinion piece in UAE’s Al Khaleej newspaper, Russia is likely to respond in kind.

Middle Eastern media outlets have been following the latest moves taken by US President closely. In fact, the latter has recently called Vladimir Putin a killer and then expressed willingness to build “a stable and predictable relationship with Russia”. A similar tactic of painful jabs and retreats is used in boxing.   In the opinion of Dr. Muhammad Bakr, Joe Biden’s team is prepared to use inflammatory rhetoric towards Moscow but not to engage in direct confrontation with it. And there are two reasons for this approach.

Firstly, the US leadership needs to somehow cover up its failure and defeat reflected in the decision to withdraw from Afghanistan as well as to silence some official voices inside the US opposing the withdrawal.  Secondly, Joe Biden’s team would like to portray the US as an influential military power on the global stage by convincing Russia to pressure Iran to return to compliance with the 2015 nuclear agreement, which could alleviate Israel’s concerns about regional stability.

Lebanon’s TV channel Al Mayadeen has described the latest maneuvers made by the Biden administration as crazy. As part of its foreign policy, the new US leadership has been indiscriminately imposing sanctions against officials and/ or institutions of two powerful countries, Russia and China. And its diplomatic efforts have included unusually provocative statements.

Tensions between the United States and the Russian Federation as well as PRC have been growing since Joe Biden became President. In the opinion of the channel, top security advisors in the United States need to keep in mind the following factor, which they are well aware of but appear to ignore for the moment. In Russia and the PRC, power remains in the hands of the dominant party unlike in the United States, where various groups compete with each other to influence decision-making processes. In the legislative sphere, the Republican party, which received over 70 million votes during the 2020 presidential election, could have a great deal of influence.

In Russia, power is “held” through Vladimir Putin’s “steadfast and strategic outlook” and through Sergey Lavrov’s “steady and intelligent diplomacy”. The West should not forget that Putin who does not like to joke “will not give in to blackmail”.

Any attempts by the Biden administration to exert influence in regions of particular concern to the Kremlin, such as Ukraine, Belarus and the Caucasus, and to continue attacking both Russia and China at the same time are a grave mistake. According to a local journalist, such moves will encourage Moscow and Beijing to strengthen their relationship and cooperate together even more, thus posing a far from insignificant strategic challenge to Washington. And such developments could push the global community closer to a multipolar world order.

Middle Eastern experts have been following the evolution of Joe Biden’s foreign policy in order to understand what consequences it will have for their region. Will it be similar to that of the Obama administration and to what extent? And how different will it be from Donald Trump’s foreign policy strategy?

It is quite clear that there is a need and hope for improved relations between regional players in this part of the world.  The author is referring to, for instance, ties between Iraq and Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Turkey, etc. There have also been quite a few reports about meetings between Saudi and Iranian officials in Baghdad recently.

According to the arabi21 website, the US administration based its assessment of the situation in the Middle East “on the fact that it is a region of eternal wars”. And if the US is to be guided by such a view in their decision-making processes in the region, the author of the report is not optimistic about future developments.  Washington is likely to see the current crisis in the region as part of its strategy to drown Russia in conflicts that consume its energy.

In addition, its aim is to disrupt China’s geopolitical Belt and Road Initiative by promoting “tension and turmoil” in the Middle East. Therefore, the US policy “will be based on letting this region rot with its conflicts” so it could “turn into a black hole that swallows up the efforts of its opponents”.

But who created this black hole in the first place?

Yuri Zinin, a senior researcher at the Center for Middle Eastern Studies, Institute of International Studies of the Moscow State Institute for International Relations, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”.

“Putin mocks Biden” and “What’s behind war of words between two presidents” are just a few of the headlines in Arab media outlets addressing the verbal attacks by head of the US administration, Joe Biden, on Russia and its President. In the Middle East, where decorum is still alive, statements made by the US leader garnered attention from journalists as well as bloggers on social media networks.

According to a recent article published in Rai al-Youm, Vladimir Putin behaved as a true diplomat by showing commendable restraint in response to US leader’s verbal jabs. “We used to think that the American ‘vulgarity’ would disappear with the disappearance of President Donald Trump,” stated the author, adding that Joe Biden was “following the same approach, if not worse”.  He also writes that the US leader seems to have forgotten about the massacres committed “by his country in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Yemen and Libya”, etc. but Arabs, particularly Muslims, remember them because their families are victims in these conflicts.

A report in a UAE-based newspaper Al Khaleej opined that the US leader wished to settle accounts  with the Kremlin belatedly. “President Biden and his party want to ‘avenge’ their defeat in the 2016 elections, and their failure to condemn Trump by taking revenge on the Kremlin and Putin personally,  but this time on the allegation that Moscow made efforts to undermine Biden’s victory, and supported Donald Trump instead,” writes the author of the article.

Some social media users are unsure whether to take the accusations of meddling in the US presidential elections made by USA’s leadership against Russia seriously or not. For instance, one of them asks whether American people are so naive as to allow Vladimir Putin to interfere in US elections in such a manner.

A number of authors think that the statements made by Joe Biden reflect the new US administration’s outdated views that the United States remains the world’s ruler imposing its policy and agenda on other nations. However, in reality, such beliefs are a thing of the past. It seems that Joe Biden’s statements mask his attempts to use the same old playbook in a new situation with its unique challenges. And one of the hardest is the Coronavirus pandemic, which dealt a serious blow to most members of the international community.

The US leadership understand that, in the current climate, Russia is among the key obstacles in USA’s path towards global dominance, particularly in the Middle East. According to some political observers, Russia’s clout on the global arena has been growing recently, and Moscow is therefore capable of responding to the US and its allies in equal measure. And Americans are not pleased with such a development.

Historically, the US leadership has viewed Russia as a “staunch rival for leadership” (since the days of the Cold War). However, the global political landscape has been transforming. According to some Middle Eastern media outlets, the biggest threat to US interests comes from China, an Eastern dragon, with its growing economic clout (in fact, PRC’s GDP has almost reached that of the United States). If the Russian Federation and China were to form an alliance, the balance of power would not be in favor of the West, especially because of the unpredictable effect the COVID-19 pandemic has been having on the world. According to a Middle Eastern journalist, Russian-Chinese ties will improve in the foreseeable future. The leaderships of both these nations agree on the necessity of establishing a multipolar global order and cooperating in order to limit the hegemony of the United States in managing world affairs.  In fact, the interests of both China and Russia are more compatible nowadays than they are with those of the USA. In addition, increasing tensions in US-Russian relations will probably have an impact on the situation in the Middle Eastern region, i.e. on a number of hot spots there.

During Donald Trump’s presidency, the PRC and Russia both opposed USA’s withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal, referred to as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). In addition, it was reported that in 2016, China became the largest source of foreign investment in the Middle East.  Concurrently, Russia “engaged diplomatically” with all the countries in the region, and increased its arms sales to them. Its leadership also concluded an agreement to establish a naval logistics and repair base in Sudan.

The Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s tour to the countries of the Gulf region, including the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Qatar, also garnered the attention of media outlets. According to Saudi journalist Omar Ali Al-Badawi, Russia could play an increasing role in politics and the economy in the Middle East… It is desirable to try and continue maintaining the relationship with Russia as this may help accelerate the resolution of some complex issues which are harder to negotiate with the West.

Possible escalation in tensions in US-Russian relations under the new US administration is a cause for concern.  Hence, a number of Middle Eastern observers view such changes as an important and dangerous challenge to global as well as regional security and stability. Some have therefore urged the US leadership “to pursue the approach of dialogue and negotiation” with the Russian side in light of combative statements made by Joe Biden recently.

Yuri Zinin, a senior researcher at the Center for Middle Eastern Studies, Institute of International Studies of the Moscow State Institute for International Relations, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”.