It’s a commonly known fact that seats in the European parliament are distributed among the EU states in accordance with their population or the so-called “degressive proportionality” approach. To this day, Germany serves home to the largest number of people in the EU, as it population reaches 82 million people, followed by France with 65 million people, Italy with 60 million people and Spain with 46 million people. For the sake of comparison, one can add that the estimated population of Luxembourg barely exceeds 600 thousand people, with Malta lagging behind with some 400 thousand people.
According to the data released by the World Bank, in the time span between 1991 and 2017, there’s been no more than 19 countries that underwent a period of population decline during that time. All of them, except for Puerto Rico, were situated in Europe. The global leaders in this negative trend are the Baltic states, namely Latvia (with a decrease of 26.7%), Lithuania (with a decrease of 23.6%) and Estonia (with a decrease of 15.7%).
It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to comprehend that any demographic changes will immediately affect the number of seats a country can claim in the European Parliament, especially in a situation when the population will spike in certain states, while others will have to undergo a period of depopulation.
Demographers say that a country with relatively low mortality rates will increase its population with a birth/death ratio higher than 2.1 (2.1 individuals born per one deceased person). However, if back in 1960 the absolute majority of countries of the world were above this critical level, these days no more than a half of all the countries of the world remain above the threshold. Moreover, the absolute majority of European states have dropped below the ratio of 2.1 children born per woman. According to Eurostat, France with 1.90 and Sweden with 1.78 can still hope to break this trend, while Malta with 1.26, Spain with 1.31, and Cyprus and Italy with 1.32 each, are bound to see their populations dwindling.
Demographic estimations for all of the largest regions of the world are readily available and are being updated every two years by the UN along with Eurostat for EU countries. However, these forecasts show us conflicting trends, as they predict a tangible population growth in a number of small states such as Ireland, Sweden and Switzerland, followed by a moderate growth in a single large country – France, that will have a larger population that any major European state. At the same time, Eurostat says that Germany, Italy and Spain will undergo a period of depopulation over the next four decades.
It’s true that any forecasts should be taken with a grain of salt, especially when we’re talking demographic numbers, as they are influenced by a large number of different factors, including social domestic policies. Additionally, there’s a migration factor that remains highly unpredictable, as no one expected a migration boom in Germany in recent years that resulted in a minor population spike that managed for a brief moment to revert the depopulation trend.
Indeed, Germany that is doing all it can to preserve the status of a leading EU state, is bound to surrender its leading positions to France due to the changing demographic balance between the states. In fact, demography is Germany’s Achilles heel, as it simply does not have the human resources to achieve any of its global ambitions. That is precisely why Germany has taken the path of attracting migrant flows, which resulted in the number of German residents of foreign origin today reaching a record high. According to the Federal Statistical Office of Germany, in 2016 there were 18.6 million men, women and children with a migration background living in the country, with 52% of them holding German passports. In 2017, the number of people with foreign roots dwelling in Germany grew by additional 8.5%. It’s safe to say that Germany undergoes the same transformation that the Roman Empire went through, where at the end of its prime there were no citizens of Roman origin to be found anywhere. Therefore, the demographic question is probably the most pressing challenge that Berlin has to solve in the coming decades, but it will not be able to achieve this through migration alone, as it’s becoming increasingly difficult to keep the “melting pot” under control.
However, Germany is not the only state that is facing such a pressing challenge, as it’s most likely, in a few years, indigenous Europeans will constitute an absolute minority in most European countries. No matter how hard Brussels will try to keep its border crossing shut against the influx of new migration waves, Europe will remain a land that attracts virtually every resident of Africa and the Middle East if he escapes war or prosecution or seeks to achieve economic prosperity. In addition, due to their religious beliefs and centuries-old traditions, Muslims will give birth to more children that original residents will, which is going to allow them to put forward the demand that the European authorities satisfy their cultural, linguistic, and religious needs.
Actively eroding local communities are facing the challenge of an increasingly criminal migrant transportation industry. In 2016, the European Union struck a deal with Turkey, and Erdogan agreed to close the Balkan route. Spain has also blocked access for refugees through Gibraltar. But the criminal structures that patronize this industry through a network of international NGOs have found a new path – the Mediterranean. A number of investigations carried out by the authorities of different states show that African migrants arrive to Libya to get transported to Europe by criminal syndicates that charge ten thousand US dollars per person transported in a small boat unsuitable for long sea voyages.
Ships of non-governmental organizations (NGOs) are usually patrolling the area tens of miles from the Libyan coast, clearly working hand in hand with the smugglers. They will give light and radio signals, telling the smugglers to put migrants in rubber boats with the latter immediately transforming into persons in distress at sea, with the maritime law bounding those NGO ships to pick them up. As a result, these days 80% of individuals “saved” at sea were taken aboard near the Libyan city of Zuwarah.
The mind-boggling budgets that some of those NGOs have hint us about the true intentions of those participating in such activities. For instance, the notorious Sea Watch has a budget of one and a half million euros, while he largest and most active of such organizations – MOAS sports the budget of 6 million euros. The two ships and drones operated by Sea Eye alone cost half a million euros. Then there’s Proactiva Open Arms with a budget of 2.5 million euros and SOS Mediterranee with a budget of at least 4 million euros. And this is just the tip of the iceberg.
Among the leading sponsors of such NGOs one can find the notorious billionaire George Soros and he won’t even try to hide this fact. However, he’s hardly the only representative of the American financial elites who tries to weaken Europe by tacitly promoting destabilization and chaos. Indeed, upon getting “rescued” most migrants will feel the moral obligation to defend the demands prompted by such NGOs, thus influencing European politics. Moreover, such NGOs have already put forward their ideological goal – the creation of universal humanity. No borders – no nations. To make the continent united – in culture, language (of course, English), in skin color, in consumption. They do not need people who defend their identity. They do not need Germans, Swedes, Greeks, Hungarians, they need obedient consumers.
Grete Mautner is an independent researcher and journalist from Germany, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook.”