Once again we see Western aggression leaving nothing but death, destruction and broken states in its wake. There is the old saying that we all are supposed to learn from our mistakes in life, but that is a dead cliché now. We do just the opposite by repeating them over and over. How stupid is that?
The Kiev Coup-meisterings are staggering around like a Spanish bull at the end of a Sunday fight, tired and bleeding. They seem to have no strategy other than lie after lie, their favorite being “The Russians are invading!!” If the military high command had the brains and the guts, they would do a counter-coup, crush the Right-Sector and the Oligarchs, and save what is left of the country. How do I know they don’t have the guts? If they did, they would have done it already.
The West has pulled out all the stops to hide what is happening. Corporate media has gone propaganda all way in this fiasco. Kiev’s under-reporting of its killed and wounded has set a world record. Palace guard troops seem to be outfitted well and can fight accordingly. The regular units have Soviet-trained officers.
The Right Sector battalions seem to prefer fighting unarmed civilians, and of course shelling them. When they are attacked, they give ground while retreating to the nearest regular army unit for support. The National Guard units seem to be on the end of the supply chain and with corresponding morale to show for it. I watched one video of a soldier demonstrating how to dress, roast and eat a snake. But frankly, I prefer the old fashioned lunch box.
For the units that were sent off on flanking movements with no support, they found themselves getting supplied with excuses instead of the needed combat maneuver supplies. The New Republic forces have used the expected tactics of attacking supply columns to resupply themselves, while wearing down the flanking Kiev forces with harassing attacks and mobile warfare.
Most of the Ukie formations that have surrendered were doing so when basically out of anyone to fight with, or when needing medical care for their wounded. They realized they were being used as sacrificial lambs to draw defense troops away from the major cities to make them easier for the main Kiev units to take.
The battle tactics changed when the Donetsk command structure was revamped. It seems all the captured Ukie equipment was being refurbished, and new units trained in larger formation tactics needed to sustain counterattacks which the smaller units could not. The effects have been devastating, with Kiev units that could not withdraw being surrounded, hopefully into submission.
Kiev’s casualties have been high, and the stories we have about the Ukrainian army field care are just horrible — like amputations without anesthetic, and wounded soldiers being exploited to pay for supplies and care. Those fortunate enough to have families that could come to get them have brought the stories of corruption and incompetency back to the rear areas. The result was the big protests we saw in Kiev this week. We even have reports of masses of women lying down in the streets to block convoys.
In the middle of all of this, Poroshenko invented a new democracy tactic, dismissing Parliament to eliminate his opposition. This also killed any official calls for investigations into the ongoing strategy debacle. Entire brigades have started to desert now, with the Palace Guard special forces (who have not been fighting) being sent out to try to round them up. That is a precursor to a real civil war, if those units can get to a supply base.
The Malaysian MH17 time bomb awaits its day of reckoning. Russia’s UN ambassador Mr. Churkin has been taunting Kiev about when do they think they will be able to find and turn over the air traffic control tapes of that day. Kiev and some helpers are at the top of the suspect list as the murderers. The US joined them as an accessory after the fact by withholding its own satellite images and communications intercepts, which everyone knows we have.
The Netherlands and Malaysia have also done a great disservice to their people through their meek response on the non-cooperation of both the US and Ukraine in the investigation. You can add in the aviation organizations who filed some paperwork requests and then bowed out of the controversy, as they suspect the murders are going to be a big scandal.
During the entire slaughter of the civilians in the New Republics, not a word of reproach was heard from the US or EU to reign Kiev in… eternal shame on them. When Kiev troops found the self-defense forces more of a match than they expected, they pulled back to shell and punish the civilian areas in return — the tactics of cowards.
The EU only began to finally show some flexibility, not through any real moral concern of the innocent being killed for their poor leadership, but solely due to the blow-back in Europe from the food sanctions. The business community is on the war path, and new concern has been shown for getting the energy Gordian Knot addressed before winter comes.
But the catch there is that Kiev has no intention of paying, as it will be broke when it shells out the $1.5 billion to get the gas pipelines flowing. Gazprom has been working feverishly to increase supply capacity to Europe around Ukraine, which once done, might be a permanent cut off for Ukraine and maybe Poland for their sending fighting units to East Ukraine. And the Poles holding up the Russian Defense Minister’s plane going through their airspace on Friday was beyond stupid. You just can’t make this stuff up!
Kiev is walking the tightrope now. With their economy destroyed, they are hemorrhaging what money is left. They have not provoked the Soviet invasion that the US really wanted, in order to crank up the sanctions wars. And the EU people have now figured out that they were duped by the US — something their leaders should all resign for, because it was an astounding betrayal of their own people. This scenario reminds me of how Israel has subverted the United States through our Congress.
Poroshenko needs both massive Western military intervention and the billions that would come with that. The US would need a “crisis” to pull that off, despite Obama saying that the US has no military option in Ukraine. But desperation can trigger wild gambles.
Russia removed one option on Friday. If a Western “emergency” intervention was in the cards to save the surrounded Kiev troops from slaughter, Putin pulled the rug out from under that. He called for safe passage to Russia for the surrendering Ukraine troops so they could return home to their families. You can just image the effect that will have on the hate-Russia campaign in Kiev if that comes to pass.
On Thursday, I did my first Russia Today TV show on Peter Lavelle’s CrossTalk, where Ukraine and its economy was the main topic. I reviewed how Putin had put out the numbers this week that if Ukraine completed the EU free trade association agreement, it can kiss goodbye to all the Russian subsidies. Over ten years they are estimated at $200 billion total.
But there is a catch. Ukraine will not have $20 billion a year from its budget to lose. There is only one source to soak up the red ink, the Western taxpayers, and they sense the handcuffs being prepared for them already. We could see some major destabilization of Europe before this is all over.
But, as Victoria Nuland uttered the famous last words “F—k the EU”, that also might boomerang around. Ukraine is the EU Tar Baby big time now, and as winter comes near, the situation will be much worse. The Donetsk Forces are clearing the coastal area from the Russian border to Crimea. Mariupol is under siege now, with the oligarchs and big wigs having left the town to some sacrificial troops to hopefully get a massacre out of.
With that port open, fuel supplies will be assured for Donetsk and Lughansk for the winter, with the Russian navy covering their backs to the sea. If Kiev thinks it is going to play hardball, wait until it hears Old Man Winter laughing.
And if Obama somehow gets the EU to go along with new sanctions, purely for spite and cover for the their Ukraine mess, the EU auto workers and suppliers will be taking that counter sanction hit this winter. If that happens, we could see an interesting European Spring.